While the current U.S. business cycle is likely past its mid-point, its durability should not be measured by length alone. The tepid nature of the recovery has prevented the build-up of excesses that normally precede recessions. Because it will be some time before any imbalances build up to the point of excess and stymie the
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
While REITs typically demonstrate some interest rate sensitivity and sometimes have a “knee-jerk” reaction down when rates first move up, performance has often rebounded. An improving economy has the potential to dampen the effects of duration risk and interest rate sensitivity, given the increased earnings and dividend growth REITs can produce. The balance of income
More than 1,000 retailers have been affected by the same malware that caused Target and Home Depot data breaches. The number of data breaches will continue to increase and cost retailers millions in IT spending and damage control. The cost of a mandated transition to a more secure “chip and pin” payment method has already
Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense. Investors should brace for higher interest rates, not just a flattening yield curve. When the facts
ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Look for another cut to bond purchases and more clues on the exit game plan. In typical fashion, last week’s
Almost as certain as death and taxes is Medicaid expansion under ACA and the move by states toward Medicaid managed care and away from traditional fee-for-service. Medicaid managed care enrollment will expand as states transition beneficiaries from fee-for-service coverage to managed care and the “opt-in” states broaden eligibility. Medicaid coverage expansion will be a source
The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform. We believe the new government could enact much needed reforms to