The near-zero interest rate environment has been a support for the financial markets, but as the economy normalizes so will interest rates. While we expect the bull market in equities to continue, returns will likely be far more modest over the next 10 years. For bonds we can expect returns in the range of 2%-3%
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes. A more spirited pickup in overall wage
Watch Zach Pandl, portfolio manager and strategist, explain what the end of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program means for investors. QE is over because it succeeded, which is good news. With cash yields still close to zero, staying invested is critical to maintaining purchasing power. Although we still think there are opportunities in the bond
30 years equals about 11,000 days. One might assume that eliminating a few of those days would have little impact on investment performance during that time. Yet, if the ten best days of the S&P 500 Index for the period 1983- 2013 are excluded, the average annual return drops from 8.40% to 5.80%. If the twenty
Republicans exceeded expectations across the board, gaining control of the Senate and picking up significant net new seats in the House as well as in state capitols. We aren’t expecting the GOP to embark on a politically self-destructive path regarding debt limits and potential government shutdowns. But a clash over immigration might increase risks of
As emerging markets investors, we like Asia because of its strong reform momentum and the depth of its stock market. Rising interest rates will be good for exports and Asia’s earnings story. Valuations, inflation rates and current accounts are at levels close to where they were from 2001 to 2005, the best period for emerging
Q: What indications did you observe that pointed to the recent market volatility storm? A: In our adaptive risk allocation framework, one of the key first level characterizations we make on markets is whether interest rates are normal or too low. Instead of rising as most expected, interest rates moved lower and lower this summer.