Perspectives Blog

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

In the following Q&A, David Donora, Head of Commodities for Threadneedle Investments, addresses some of the key concerns currently facing investors in commodity markets, and explains his view of the outlook for the market. What is your outlook for commodities for the remainder of 2014? We are bullish on the macro outlook for the rest of 2014. The OECD countries and in particular North America, the region where economic growth is currently th…

The end of “risk-on/risk-off”

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | February 3, 2014

…the financial crisis, cross-asset correlations rose sharply as asset prices reacted predominantly to macro factors and less to individual stock or bond characteristics. For example, while the correlation between equities and commodities used to be negative or very low, it rose to over 80% during the crisis years (2008-2011). Correlations between equities in different regions (emerging markets (EM) vs. developed markets (DM)) used to be low, but…

Global Asset Allocation Outlook (as of May 13, 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | June 2, 2014

…most emerging economies, several central banks, particularly in Asia, have taken steps to strengthen their currencies and improve external funding. Moreover, valuations are generally compelling. In addition, the team upgraded commodities from an underweight to neutral as roll yields are positive and supply demand factors for a broad range of commodities are favorable over the next few months. Source: Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC….

Global Asset Allocation Outlook (June 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | June 30, 2014

In contrast to last year, so far this year all major asset classes have performed well. Developed market equities, bonds, emerging market (EM) equities and EM bonds, and commodities are all up year to date in the range of 4%-8%. Globally diversified portfolios should continue to fare well in this environment and the global asset allocation team continues to recommend modestly overweighting equities over bonds with a neutral allocation to commodi…

Global market mid-year outlook

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | June 16, 2014

…al bonds made progress in May with the former outpacing the latter in local currency terms; for the month, the MSCI World index rose 2.34% in total return terms while the JP Morgan Global Government Bond index returned 0.87%. Commodities, which prior to May had performed very robustly, lost some ground as the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity index produced a dollar total return of -2.87%. Nonetheless, returns from the asset class remain well into positive…

Global asset allocation outlook (as of March 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | April 7, 2014

…continued to perform well. Other hybrid bond like assets, such as convertible bonds, REITs and utilities were the best performing assets in the first quarter rising about 5%-7%. In a complete reversal from last year’s trend, commodities also rallied in the first quarter. The U.S. economy experienced a slowdown partly attributed to weather, but also due to softness in housing and payback from a very strong inventory cycle in the second half of 20…

U.S. rates — Data dependence

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | June 23, 2014

…ld curve. The June FOMC meeting contained a little bit for everyone and interest rates reacted only marginally after the announcements. But looking across asset markets—including nominal and inflation-linked bonds, equities, commodities and the dollar—it’s clear that investors interpreted the news as another dovish surprise from the Fed. We are not sure that is the correct interpretation, and the reason comes down to the issue of “data dependenc…