Perspectives Blog

Half-time report on the U.S. consumer

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | July 28, 2014

U.S. consumers have taken a more cautious attitude toward debt and been more selective about using it for discretionary purchases. With consumers using credit cards less and using debit cards much more, the supports for higher discretionary spending are keyed off income and wages and also employment. With low debt use and income growth holding back consumption and demand, households will require stronger job growth and real wage gains to accele…

Interest rates in a highly indebted economy

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | October 13, 2014

…DSR (Exhibit 2). On the x-axis is the average effective interest rate on the outstanding stock of private sector debt—a blend of mortgage rates, floating rate business debt, etc. On the y-axis is the DSR for the nonfinancial private sector as a whole. The upward sloping line means that consumers and firms dedicate more of their income to debt service as interest rates rise. Exhibit 2: Sustainable DSR achieved with low rates and/or low debt stock…

Credit alternatives in government-backed debt

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 23, 2014

One way investors may boost yields without taking on undue credit risk is through U.S. government agency debt. While many investors associate U.S. agency debt with very low yields, other types of agency debt can offer significant spreads to Treasuries with a modest decline in liquidity. We have been increasing our allocation to the agency market in core portfolios as a way to reduce credit risk while maintaining competitive yields. By Carl W….

Trouble in paradise: Q&A about Puerto Rico bonds

Chad Farrington, CFA, Head of Municipal Bond Credit Research and Senior Portfolio Manager | January 2, 2014

…mption (federal, state and local) had been a big lure for many institutional investors, such as mutual funds. PR debt exposure in municipal bond funds, namely single-state municipal bond funds, proved advantageous for shareholders — that is until Puerto Rico debt started trading more in line with its weak fundamental credit characteristics. Since late summer 2013, municipal bonds issued by Puerto Rico have lost more than 20% of their value, with…

From tactical to core – The case for emerging market debt

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 2, 2014

…r, investors now need to look beyond corporate credit for incremental yield, and we believe that emerging market debt (EMD) offers an attractive, high-quality alternative. Emerging market debt is largely investment grade Hard currency EMD, i.e. bonds issued in U.S. dollars, is effectively a credit asset class and spreads (the yield premium) over U.S. Treasury bond yields can be more directly compared to corporate credit spreads. In fact, on a ris…

Missing links and multipliers

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | June 9, 2014

Several forces are colliding now and causing a downshift in the trajectory of the U.S. housing recovery. Household formations remain at multi-year lows due in large part to mediocre income and job gains in combination with high student loan debt by 25 – 45 year old homebuyers. Fewer homeowners mean missing multipliers for growth. As a result, housing will prove less of an accelerator for economic growth in the period ahead. Having witnessed a…

Apparel retail doldrums

Mari Shor, Senior Equity Analyst | August 11, 2014

…growth may make it difficult to close the gap between the haves and have-nots. On the other hand, higher income consumers have enjoyed the financial and psychological benefit of rising stock and housing markets. With household net worth up 35% since the 2009 trough, consumer confidence has risen close to its long-term average, and consumers have indicated increased willingness to reduce their savings and take on debt. Through the Q2 earnings sea…