Perspectives Blog

Duration for diversification

Columbia Management, Investment Team | November 19, 2013

Many investors struggle to determine the appropriate amount of bond duration in an environment of rising interest rates. The right amount of duration has to be considered in a portfolio context, because the main value of duration exposure comes through diversification. Because of the negative correlation between duration and the returns of riskier assets, high-quality fixed income will still be a cornerstone of any disciplined portfolio. By Za…

Navigating rising rates

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 11, 2013

Interest rates will rise at some point; investors must consider how to manage interest rate exposure in their portfolios. Duration can be a highly misleading measure of interest rate risk when making comparisons across products. For fixed income investors, sector exposure matters, and fundamental research can help avoid potholes. By Zach Pandl, Senior Interest Rate Strategist, and Gene Tannuzzo, Senior Portfolio Manager It’s time for investors…

U.S. rates — View update

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 4, 2014

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy. We are still expecting higher rates; however, we now have less conviction that 3-5yr Treasuries will continue to underperform on the curve. For the last couple of months we have argued that portfolios should remain underw…

What should U.S. bond investors expect in 2014?

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | January 6, 2014

The timing of the Fed’s QE exit is no longer the central question An accelerating economy could mean another challenging year for duration risk A major question is whether markets begin to doubt the Fed’s commitment to low rates If bond investors were asked to summarize 2013 in a single word, we suspect that many would pick “taper.” The question of when the Federal Reserve (the Fed) would begin dialing back quantitative easing (QE) dominated m…

Q2 fixed income outlook – Hitting for the cycle

Gene Tannuzzo, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…s year, and we expect further strength ahead as volatility subsides. While we expect a flatter yield curve over the next few months as investors focus on the timing and pace of rate increases, we don’t think they should avoid duration altogether. By the middle of this year, the economic expansion in the U.S. will officially turn five years old. By comparison, the average of all business cycle expansions tracked by the National Bureau of Economic…

Dovish feathers showing through

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 14, 2014

Dovish comments by Fed officials lead us to believe that normalization in interest rates could take a more circuitous route. While the steady economic recovery makes higher yields inevitable, the path we take to get there is dependent on the Yellen Fed’s policy approach. We remain underweight duration, but are now less sure 3-5yr yields will lead the way over the near-term. Textbooks would have us believe that monetary policy is a hard science…

The Yellen Fed

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | October 9, 2013

President Obama to nominate Janet Yellen for Fed Chair. Yellen has strongly supported the Fed’s unconventional easing measures in recent years, and we expect that her nomination will therefore be interpreted as favorable to duration and carry trades. Yellen has described an “optimal control” framework, which could indicate a coming revision to the current structure of the FOMC’s forward guidance. According to press reports, Preside…