Perspectives Blog

Could tapering be good for stocks?

Fred Copper, Senior Portfolio Manager | December 16, 2013

Despite all the discussion surrounding quantitative easing (QE), there has been little theoretical justification for the link between QE and equity prices. Europe provides a glaring counter-example of the impact of central bank policy on financial markets. Once the psychic umbilical cord of QE is cut (tapered), the market may actually be cheered by the end of what has always been perceived as a temporary and extreme form of life support. Few i…

How will the Volcker rule impact capital markets?

Richard Manuel, CFA, Senior Analyst | January 6, 2014

, so it would stand to reason that eliminating prop trading should neither hurt nor help the banks. Certainly, the Volcker Rule has forced technology and compliance expenses to increase significantly, driving lower returns on equity (ROE). Economic theory would suggest that as the cost to compete rises, fewer competitors will remain in the industry, and that with this consolidation, the profits will rise for those that remain. While some players…

Not all emerging markets are created equal

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | January 27, 2014

security selection amidst growing dispersion in outcomes across the emerging world. It is not surprising that many investors may see EM as a highly correlated block. During the past decade, cross correlations between country equity indices doubled from the previous decade and individual security correlations moved similar orders of magnitude in equities and fixed income. The convergence of outcomes was largely the result of some common factors h…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets. At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China…

Emerging Markets: Waiting on exports

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

Exports by emerging market economies are the most important factor in explaining long-term growth. EM exports have remained sluggish for the past three years due in part to the subpar nature of global growth. As emerging markets struggle to overcome the challenges to their growth story, the EM landscape will likely face significant challenges ahead. Equity markets in the developed world did very well in 2013 while the picture was far more mixe…

Asset allocation – Kinetic vs. potential energy

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | August 4, 2014

While most equity markets had positive first half performance, we still expect modest acceleration in growth ahead for the global economy. From both a valuation perspective and investor sentiment viewpoint, Chinese, Russian and Japanese equities look cheap. Europe appears vulnerable to shifting sentiment in addition to further downward revisions to profit expectations. In our latest Investment Strategy Outlook we discuss kinetic energy vs. pot…

Global market mid-year outlook

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | June 16, 2014

Overall macroeconomic picture in U.S. should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. We remain positive on emerging market debt while maintaining a bias against emerging market equities. Overall equity markets have been strong and current index levels suggest that investors still have confidence in the outlook for profits. Global equities and global bonds made progress in May with the former outpa…