Perspectives Blog

Ukraine Crisis – Can the U.S. make Europe less dependent on Russian gas?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | July 28, 2014

As Europe looks to diversify away from its dependence on Russian gas, the U.S. is on track to start exporting liquefied natural gas by as early as next year. Russia remains the largest exporter of natural gas in the world and accounts for approximately 30% of Europe’s gas demand, half of which is transported through Ukraine. While the risk of winter supply disruptions will likely further push Europe to seek a more diversified and permanent sour…

Quality milestone in the European recovery story

March 17, 2014

Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe. We favor domestic European plays over internationally-exposed stocks, with an overweight stance in banking and telecoms. By Paul Doyle, Head of Europe ex. UK equities and Frederic Jeanmaire, Fund Manager, Threadneedle Investments After 18 consecutive negative months, the flow of eurozone…

Is Europe heading for Japanese-style deflation?

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | August 4, 2014

…he Japanese experience proves that once the process is underway, it is difficult to reverse. Progress report for Europe In contrast to Japan, Europe’s asset price crash was part of an international phenomenon. Although there were property bubbles in some euro area countries, such as Spain and Ireland, this was not the root cause of the problem. Initially, it was Europe’s exposure to global trade that caused a steep drop in economic activity in th…

European equities – Should investors care about periphery vs. core anymore?

Dan Ison, Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

…et performance in the eurozone We expect nominal growth to be the key driver of an improving earnings picture in Europe European equities should show further good returns to investors in 2014 As we enter 2014 there are the usual questions, conversations and strategy pieces extolling the virtues of different regions and asset classes. 2013 saw a phoenix-like resurgence in interest for European equities with an interesting mix of winners and loser…

A less certain world favors high-quality stocks

Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities, Threadneedle International Ltd | October 6, 2014

…edia, and service-related industrials. In retrospect, we were too optimistic about the recovery potential of the European financial sector, particularly with respect to the peripheral banks. Despite the recent ECB moves to provide extra liquidity, we believe that growth and inflation will remain low and are therefore more defensively positioned. We recently met with European company managements and consequently are concerned about the outlook for…

October — It always seems to happen in October!

Ted Truscott, CEO, Global Asset Management | October 20, 2014

…emselves a very nasty question: What happens if growth slows again in the U.S. and/or weak and slowing growth in Europe, Russia and China drags down U.S. and U.K. growth?  Who will ride to the rescue? Hard to believe central banks can do much more except bond buying in Europe to mimic steps taken in the U.S. Meanwhile, governments around the world have been completely tone deaf to the concerns raised by their own central bankers for many years. P…

Q&A with Jeff Knight

Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Global Head of Investment Solutions and Asset Allocation | November 10, 2014

…ancial crisis. We had no indication in the U.S. that such events were likely. But as we looked around the world, Europe in particular, those were exactly the issues that were coming to the fore. And so, Europe became, in a way, the center of global economic marginal gravity. It was this decline in rates, in combination with an increase in equity market volatility, that caused our market state classification to signal that a more preservation-orie…