Search results for: european central bank

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Quality milestone in the European recovery story

Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

U.S. rates — Forward guidance taxonomy

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future differently than it has behaved in the past.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Is the ECB’s stimulus a positive for European stocks?

Under yesterday’s expanded QE programme, the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement combined monthly purchases of €60bn to end September 2016 or until there is sustained improvement in path of inflation (i.e,. a far-reaching commitment,  though they have said they will not buy more than 25% of the outstanding stock).

Tagged with: Global Economy, Markets

In the land of 7 footers, 6’8″ plays guard

The expected real return on most “safe haven” assets is currently negative. Risk seeking behavior could result in a bubble encompassing all risky assets.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

What investors should know about Fed forward guidance

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up its statements. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, which means they should be considered less credible.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

A less certain world favors high-quality stocks

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Asset allocation: Q4 equity strategy

After the recent correction and with the breadth of our asset allocation research still favoring equities, we are rebuilding an equity overweight, primarily using U.S. large-cap stocks. While the Fed heads toward the exit, the European Central Bank is planning to provide further monetary easing and the Bank of Japan is continuing to expand its balance sheet.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

Finding bond opportunities throughout the business cycle

Global bond markets respond in different ways throughout the business cycle. A flexible strategy can adapt its risk complexion to capture opportunities and mitigate downside.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

ECB QE – A boost for markets but not a cure of all ills

We are positive on the financial market impact of European QE if it brings down risk premia such as peripheral bond spreads. The tendency amongst investors will be to own more risk assets such as equities, particularly as the ECB’s move will help to keep interest rates low globally.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing
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