Perspectives Blog

U.S. rates – Headwinds

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | March 17, 2014

…function) and also affects the size of the output gap (the normal transmission mechanism). However, there are many other things that affect the output gap besides monetary policy. These can include non-financial factors like fiscal policy and oil prices, as well as financial headwinds/tailwinds such as credit standards, household balance sheet stress and capital market regulation (financial headwinds could be thought of as affecting the output g…

Monetary policy shift creates new investment challenges

Columbia Management, Investment Team | August 6, 2013

Going forward, investors should look for return opportunities that do not depend upon easy money. Diversification strategies must take into account expected high correlations and the vulnerability of “safe” assets to changes in monetary policy The repricing of many assets as the second quarter drew to a close has created an expanded set of attractive investment opportunities. For most of 2013, financial markets have been responding to a nearly…

Rebalancing the U.S. economy

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

Both fiscal and monetary policy will begin to normalize in 2014 The economy’s performance will be an important metric for markets as growth needs to catch up The key to getting growth beyond 2% is for business to borrow to improve/expand productive capital It’s happening again—a fourth quarter bounce in economic activity that extends into the first quarter and supports the view that growth really, finally, has started to accelerate. Such bounc…

What investors should know about Fed forward guidance

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | March 24, 2014

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up its statements. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, which means they should be considered less credible. Look for the market’s heavy reliance on Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecasts to fade over time. Last week, at Janet Yellen’s first…

Is Japan’s economic rebound for real?

Daisuke Nomoto, Senior Portfolio Manager | May 23, 2013

…current policies “work upon people’s expectations,” or in other words, change the deflationary mindset to an inflationary one. What is supposed to happen next? “Abenomics” consists of three arrows: 1) bold monetary easing, 2) fiscal stimulus and 3) reforms to stimulate private investment. Our on-the-ground research suggests that there may be a modest boost to real income in coming months, a welcome change to Japanese wage earners who have seen th…

U.S. rates – Forward guidance taxonomy

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | March 17, 2014

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future differently than it has behaved in the past. Look for the market’s heavy reliance on the SEP forecasts to fade o…

Labor market takes center stage

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | October 15, 2013

Labor market issues have long taken a central role in Janet Yellen’s career. Remarks indicate Yellen views current labor market challenges as potentially very costly for the economy, and she sees a role for monetary policy in promoting recovery. Yellen’s nomination likely raises the bar for Fed tightening, as long as inflation remains low. When it comes to the current priorities for monetary policy, investors already know where Janet Yellen st…