Search results for: floating rate loans

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Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Neutral funds rate going up?

The idea of low neutral funds rate has surprising currency, but could erode with more evidence of solid growth. We believe incoming information suggests the neutral funds rate would be moving higher, not lower.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

A creature is stirring

Last week’s news suggests that the center of the FOMC continues to see interest rate hikes in the middle of next year as most appropriate. December 17 looks like a natural time to begin signaling the possibility of rate hikes to financial markets—an eventuality for which bond investors do not look prepared.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

U.S. rates — Data dependence

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, U.S. Economy

Slack and inflation

Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

U.S. rates — An intriguing six point three

Fed and consensus unemployment forecasts are likely to come down after last week’s jobs report. It is not obvious what lower unemployment rate forecasts mean for U.S. monetary policy.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Another look at disability and labor force participation

In searching for explanations for the steep decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate analysts have rightly stressed the importance of retiring baby boomers. Increase in disability share accounts for 20-25% of the drop in the labor force participation rate since 2007 (vs ~45% for retirements).

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Could a 529 plan help you pay less for college?

College savings plans offer an important tool for managing the cost of higher education. Saving in advance could offer a significant cost savings compared to taking loans during college.

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