Perspectives Blog

Neutral funds rate going up?

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | May 16, 2014

The idea of low neutral funds rate has surprising currency, but could erode with more evidence of solid growth. We believe incoming information suggests the neutral funds rate would be moving higher, not lower. We see neutral funds rate at 3.75-4.00%, which implies an overvalued Treasury market. The hottest topic in the bond market at the moment is the idea that the “neutral funds rate”—where the Fed will rest short-term interest rates when th…

Gaps, not growth

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | February 25, 2014

Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies. The output gap improved despite a relatively slow expansion, suggesting weak potential growth. While it’s far too soon to revise any medium…

A question for Jackson Hole

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | August 20, 2014

Fed officials have highlighted underemployment but offered little guidance about how this issue affects the policy outlook. Traditional tools like the Taylor Rule need to be recalibrated if the central bank focuses on a different measure of slack, so they offer little guidance to investors at the moment. We hope to learn more at this week’s Jackson Hole conference. A consensus among Fed officials holds that the standard U3 unemployment rate—no…

Gut check: The outlook on fixed income

Colin J. Lundgren, CFA, Head of U.S. Fixed Income | February 24, 2014

The next big move in rates may be triggered by concerns about possible future Fed rate hikes. High-quality bonds may struggle to generate coupon-like returns. Emerging markets may ultimately benefit from the synchronized uptick in growth in global developed markets. With nearly two months of the year behind us, we thought now would be a good time to see how the fixed-income market is faring in 2014 and assess our outlook. We asked our investme…

Should your income be fixed?

David King, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | December 16, 2013

Investors need to rethink the role of fixed income in building portfolios How to provide an adequate rate of return with an acceptable level of risk Benefits of a non-fixed, income-oriented strategy in today’s environment Peanut butter and jelly. Bacon and eggs. Scotch and soda. In the investment industry, the words “fixed” and “income” seem as inseparable as our favorite food and beverage combinations. Something which has served millions of p…

A primer on preferred securities

Carl Pappo, Head of Core Fixed Income | March 10, 2014

…capital structure, and are always ahead of common equity and traditional preferred securities. The newest generation of hybrid structure typically start out as fixed-rate bonds for a set period and then transition to floating rate payments following a call date. • Traditional preferred securities are perpetual securities that rank ahead of common shares and behind all other debt. These securities are typically held by retail investors and usually…

U.S. rates — Data dependence

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | June 23, 2014

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving. We therefore remain cautious about exposure to U.S. interest rate risk, especially at the middle of the yield curve. The June FOMC meeting contained a little bit for everyone and interest rates reacted only marginally after the announcements. But lo…