Perspectives Blog

Rebalancing the U.S. economy

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

arely changed (essentially no growth) after adjusting for inflation and taxes. This area has failed to rebalance and remains challenged, particularly as businesses assess staffing and planned costs of the ACA (Obamacare). The global growth story as well appears a mix—capital flows are rebalancing and demand drivers are few with lots of excess supply putting downward pressure on inflation. Investors should note that this rebalance to better growth…

India’s new government fires investor enthusiasm

Natasha Ebtehadj, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Limited | September 8, 2014

The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform. We believe the new government could enact much needed reforms to stimulate investment and unlock India’s economic potential. India’s economy has been w…

Income inequality, disinflation and profit growth – the role of globalization

March 10, 2014

Income inequality has tended to rise in both developed and EM. Companies look across the globe to determine where they can manufacture their products at the lowest risk-adjusted cost. We believe that the global unit labor cost arbitrage is likely to continue for many decades. By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of Multi Asset Allocation Last week we discussed rising income inequality in developed markets and the degree to…

Slow growth: Why is it here and will it stay?

February 24, 2014

…s may be undergoing a long period of slow growth has been attracting an increasing amount of attention. While primarily a developed market phenomenon, this should have more than a passing interest for all investors. True, the global financial crisis unleashed particularly strong deflationary forces, but the drivers of slower growth and lower inflation have largely been in place for some time. Some point to growing income inequality, while others…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…d in particular North America, the region where economic growth is currently the strongest, and where growth is accelerating, will drive the expansion. Unless there is a significant escalation of geopolitical events we expect global growth to improve. Given that the developed world is leading the global economy, we anticipate that the expansion will be more energy intensive, and less intensive in terms of its consumption of industrial-type commod…

When the QE tide recedes, focus on what is revealed

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | January 6, 2014

Monetary stimulus from central banks can no longer be counted on to lift asset prices For 2014 we see a market with lower cross-correlations and more divergent investment outcomes Finding alpha opportunities requires in-depth global research to take advantage of market inefficiencies While there is fierce debate on the ultimate effectiveness of monetary stimulus surging from the central banks, one cannot dispute the boost that it has given to…

Signs point to an improving U.S. economy

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | December 9, 2013

Data shows economy is improving Job growth is continuing GDP is not as good as the report would make you think The first week in December was a data goldmine for anyone hoping for news that the economy maintained momentum through the early autumn government distortions. The payroll report continued to post moderate and steady payroll gains consistent with a sustained improvement in labor markets. The interruption from the government shutdown i…