Perspectives Blog

European equities – Should investors care about periphery vs. core anymore?

Dan Ison, Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

The more dramatic the economic reforms, the better the stock market performance in the eurozone We expect nominal growth to be the key driver of an improving earnings picture in Europe European equities should show further good returns to investors in 2014 As we enter 2014 there are the usual questions, conversations and strategy pieces extolling the virtues of different regions and asset classes. 2013 saw a phoenix-like resurgence in interest…

Ukraine Crisis – Can the U.S. make Europe less dependent on Russian gas?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | July 28, 2014

As Europe looks to diversify away from its dependence on Russian gas, the U.S. is on track to start exporting liquefied natural gas by as early as next year. Russia remains the largest exporter of natural gas in the world and accounts for approximately 30% of Europe‚Äôs gas demand, half of which is transported through Ukraine. While the risk of winter supply disruptions will likely further push Europe to seek a more diversified and permanent sour…

Inflation — The usual suspects

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | August 11, 2014

Four factors figure empirically into how and why inflation moves: (1) commodity prices, (2) spare capacity, (3) changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary policy. These same factors argue for a gradual recovery in U.S. inflation in the year ahead, which could be a headwind for high-quality fixed-income returns. In contrast to U.S. markets, in markets with prospects for a trend lower in inflation expectations (e.g. certain pockets of EM), falli…

The coming divide in state credit quality

Ty Schoback, Senior Municipal Analyst | June 3, 2014

We expect an increased divergence in state credit quality in the coming years, compared with what has been seen over the past two decades. While the overall state sector remains robust, we believe notable credit distinctions are beginning to materialize among several weaker states. Investors should be aware of this divergence and seek to be appropriately compensated for investing in states of varied creditworthiness. State tax revenues typical…