Search results for: growth

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Scarce growth — Can the tortoises continue to outpace the hares?

Recent selloff has tested stance that investors would benefit from seeking scarce growth, so long as that growth did not become wildly overvalued. We appear to be moving into a “sorting out” stage where investors begin to more granularly assess both the fundamentals and the incremental opportunities.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing, Markets

October — It always seems to happen in October!

Markets are now asking what happens if growth slows again in the U.S. and/or weak and slowing growth in Europe, Russia and China drags down U.S. and U.K. growth?

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Bond yields are too low somewhere

Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Harvesting a New Moderation in Asia

Companies with competitive strengths still intact should have positive profit growth once adaptive change gets underway. The ability to control cost is essential to surviving the growth slowdown in Asia Pacific ex Japan.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Neutral funds rate going up?

The idea of low neutral funds rate has surprising currency, but could erode with more evidence of solid growth. We believe incoming information suggests the neutral funds rate would be moving higher, not lower.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

The beginnings of a new moderation in Asia

The Great Moderation was a period of macroeconomic growth and reduced volatility that provided a backdrop to the strong performance of U.S. equities. The lessons hold relevance for equity investors in Asia as big picture conditions for a Great Moderation are starting to fall into place.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing

Investing selectively in Asia

Beneath the surface of slowdown headlines lay pockets of exciting growth opportunities. As companies step back from chasing revenue growth and start emphasizing profit delivery, better cash flows and dividend payouts typically follow.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Where’s Waldo? Be on the lookout for rising costs in a low growth world

Broad measures of cost inflation (PPI and CPI) growth rates have remained near 2% for the past three years. However, sharp increases have occurred in isolated areas like trucking, but the effect is far-reaching.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

A less certain world favors high-quality stocks

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets
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