Search results for: inflation

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Inflation — The usual suspects

Four factors figure empirically into how and why inflation moves: (1) commodity prices, (2) spare capacity, (3) changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary policy. These same factors argue for a gradual recovery in U.S. inflation in the year ahead, which could be a headwind for high-quality fixed-income returns.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

ECB asset purchases — Bazooka or damp squib?

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Slack and inflation

Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Release the doves

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

Deflation dilemma

The factors keeping inflation low remain U.S. dollar strength and sluggish global trade, together with the deflationary pulse from weak energy and commodity prices. While there is little danger of this developing into true deflation, the strong dollar effect will continue to depress inflation for much longer and this has a stronger influence on core inflation.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

The European Central Bank is embarking on quantitative easing at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. A more constructive economic outlook could have important implications for European markets.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Markets

U.S. rates — Waiting for the sound

Latest data showing faster growth and shrinking gaps. Normalizing economy creates asymmetry in monetary policy outlook.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Data dependence, broadly defined – Implications of last week’s Fed meeting

Last week’s FOMC meeting was the third largest dovish surprise in the QE era, only bested by the original QE1 announcement and the September 2013 “no taper” decision. We continue to expect the FOMC to hike rates in September, and the pace of rate hikes thereafter should be faster than markets are currently pricing.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing
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