Search results for: interest rates

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Interest rates — Farewell, liquidity trap

The U.S. Treasury market as a whole has returned +1% annualized since the end of 2012 (and +0.5% annualized since the low in 10-year yields in July 2012). Because of imminent Fed rate hikes and depressed yield levels, prospective returns look no better today.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Interest rates in a highly indebted economy

In a highly indebted economy, there is no fixed cap on the level of interest rates. Any increase in interest rates must be consistent with tolerable debt service ratios, the existing stock of debt and private sector savings.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, Markets

Bond yields are too low somewhere

Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Rising rates and REIT returns

While REITs typically demonstrate some interest rate sensitivity and sometimes have a “knee-jerk” reaction down when rates first move up, performance has often rebounded. An improving economy has the potential to dampen the effects of duration risk and interest rate sensitivity, given the increased earnings and dividend growth REITs can produce.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

U.S. rates — When the facts change

Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

U.S. rates — Headwinds

At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee looks likely to rework its forward guidance for short-term interest rates once again. We expect revised forward guidance to lean heavily on the idea of “headwinds”; this is a stand-in term for a low equilibrium real rate.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Why pay a premium for municipal bonds?

What are premium, par and discount bonds? Why paying a premium often makes sense.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing
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