Search results for: janet yellen

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Yellen at Jackson Hole

At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Global Economy

U.S. rates — View update

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Dovish feathers showing through

Dovish comments by Fed officials lead us to believe that normalization in interest rates could take a more circuitous route. While the steady economic recovery makes higher yields inevitable, the path we take to get there is dependent on the Yellen Fed’s policy approach.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — An intriguing six point three

Fed and consensus unemployment forecasts are likely to come down after last week’s jobs report. It is not obvious what lower unemployment rate forecasts mean for U.S. monetary policy.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Thoughts on navigating market volatility in today’s technology markets

We are seeing a market rotation from momentum to value on macro factors and internal market dynamics. Keys are to stay diversified, look for businesses with strong moats and that produce solid cash flow and compare to historical valuations.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

ECB QE – No green light for interest rate risk

Fed officials should be encouraged by the ECB’s announcement to begin a large-scale bond buying program in an effort to shore up growth and prevent deflation. The action reduces downside risks to global growth, and thus the risks of spillovers to the domestic economy.

Tagged with: Economic/Markets Outlook, Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

U.S. Rates — The Draghi Floor

ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

U.S. rates — When the facts change

Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

A less certain world favors high-quality stocks

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy
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