Perspectives Blog

What to expect from Janet Yellen’s testimony

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | February 10, 2014

Yellen’s testimony before U.S. lawmakers will help clarify how she plans to govern the committee Some investors are expecting a meaningful change in direction from the Yellen Fed We look at four reasons why we anticipate continuity with the Bernanke regime After a few bewildering weeks with Nicolas Maduro and Erdem Basci, I can’t be the only one grateful to be turning attention back to Janet Yellen. The new Federal Reserve Board Chair will mak…

Labor market takes center stage

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | October 15, 2013

Labor market issues have long taken a central role in Janet Yellen’s career. Remarks indicate Yellen views current labor market challenges as potentially very costly for the economy, and she sees a role for monetary policy in promoting recovery. Yellen’s nomination likely raises the bar for Fed tightening, as long as inflation remains low. When it comes to the current priorities for monetary policy, investors already know where Janet Yellen st…

The Yellen Fed

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | October 9, 2013

President Obama to nominate Janet Yellen for Fed Chair. Yellen has strongly supported the Fed’s unconventional easing measures in recent years, and we expect that her nomination will therefore be interpreted as favorable to duration and carry trades. Yellen has described an “optimal control” framework, which could indicate a coming revision to the current structure of the FOMC’s forward guidance. According to press reports, Preside…

Janet Yellen’s Fed

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | November 12, 2013

Chair of the Federal Reserve Board might be the most powerful job in global finance, and if Janet Yellen is confirmed, her views will weigh heavily on policy decisions — and influence financial markets — for at least the next four years. Yellen should be considered a dovish central banker, relative to other Fed officials. The bottom line for investors is that as long as inflation remains low, Yellen will likely advocate a slow exit…

U.S. rates — View update

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 4, 2014

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy. We are still expecting higher rates; however, we now have less conviction that 3-5yr Treasuries will continue to underperform on the curve. For the last couple of months we have argued that portfolios should remain underw…

Dovish feathers showing through

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 14, 2014

us believe that monetary policy is a hard science—it’s only a matter of loss functions, dynamic systems and optimization. In reality, there is a big subjective component. Here’s what we wrote about this issue in our primer on Janet Yellen: “By and large Fed officials agree on their goals for the economy over the longer run … Where they disagree is on what should happen between now and then: how costly is high unemployment; what are tolerable path…

U.S. rates – An intriguing six point three

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | June 9, 2014

…unemployment rate matters at some level, Fed officials are focused on much broader measures of slack, and have perhaps put renewed emphasis on wages as well. For instance, a recent paper by economist Andrew Levin (previously Janet Yellen’s chief of staff) puts the degree of broad labor market slack at around 5.5 million full-time equivalent workers (see figures 1 and 2; these are our estimates using Levin’s methodology). Although FOMC members fr…