Search results for: labor force

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Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Another look at disability and labor force participation

In searching for explanations for the steep decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate analysts have rightly stressed the importance of retiring baby boomers. Increase in disability share accounts for 20-25% of the drop in the labor force participation rate since 2007 (vs ~45% for retirements).

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Slack and inflation

Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Labor markets in the new digital age

The downside to technological progress is short-term dislocations and job loss for those displaced by automation. Workers with high skills and advanced education command a wage premium while unskilled and lower-skilled workers are displaced which aggravates income inequality.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

The U.S. labor market — Show me the money

It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Yellen at Jackson Hole

At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Global Economy

Steady as she goes

The March labor market report was solid, with the overall private level of employment finally exceeding the pre-recession high. The Household Survey had the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7%.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — View update

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

What to expect from Janet Yellen’s testimony

Yellen’s testimony before U.S. lawmakers will help clarify how she plans to govern the committee. Some investors are expecting a meaningful change in direction from the Yellen Fed.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Gaps, not growth

Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy
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