Perspectives Blog

Income inequality, disinflation and profit growth – the role of globalization

March 10, 2014

…-adjusted cost. We believe that the global unit labor cost arbitrage is likely to continue for many decades. By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of Multi Asset Allocation Last week we discussed rising income inequality in developed markets and the degree to which bank lending to lower income households helped create a financially unstable and unsustainable dynamic that culminated in the global financial crisis. We postulate…

Labor markets in the new digital age

Columbia Management, Investment Team | April 14, 2014

…ary to the new emerging technologies and those who discern how best to adapt and gain competitive advantage. By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of Multi Asset Allocation A theme not touched on so far in our series on income inequality and secular stagnation is the impact of innovation and technology on economic growth and income. Technological progress carries long-term benefits raising standards of living and boosting pro…

The role of income inequality

March 3, 2014

…uild to address income inequality, we expect the government to lead on this issue and private sector to lag. By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of Multi asset Allocation. This is the second part in their series: Slow growth: Why is it here and will it stay?┬áPart one┬ácan be read here. The roots of the great financial crisis and the slow post-recovery period can be traced to many factors, but a predominant one is the rise in…

Slow growth: Why is it here and will it stay?

February 24, 2014

…as fallen. (But is it negative? We explore this question in this continuing series over the next few weeks.) By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of Multi Asset Allocation The idea that economies may be undergoing a long period of slow growth has been attracting an increasing amount of attention. While primarily a developed market phenomenon, this should have more than a passing interest for all investors. True, the global f…

Is a stock market correction coming?

Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Global Head of Investment Solutions and Asset Allocation | December 16, 2013

…1) Recession. Interestingly, in the absence of recession, the stock market tends to perform fairly well. Neither Marie Schofield (our chief economist) nor Zach Pandl (our chief interest rate strategist) assigns a material probability to recession in the United States next year. 2) Financial accident. Of course, you can never know for sure, but we believe this is not likely in the age of financial sector deleveraging, Dodd Frank, etc. In addition,…

Special report – 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 16, 2014

…uers are experiencing credit strengthening with improving tax collections and still restrained spending. Economy Marie M. Schofield, Chief economist and senior portfolio manager Review: The discouraging drop in first quarter gross domestic product is a reminder that some headwinds persist despite the improvement in underlying economic trends. Cold weather and an inventory correction were blamed for most of the decline, and the reversal of these d…