Perspectives Blog

Are financial markets priced for secular stagnation?

Columbia Management, Investment Team | December 15, 2014

…eved that we were in a world of secular stagnation, how would we know? We could start by taking Japanese capital markets between 1989 and 2014 as a script. The Japanese script is one that features government bond markets rallying as the possibility of central bank rate rises and associated economic recovery was incrementally priced out. Corporate credit markets saw spreads tighten as the reach for yield spread from the JGB market. Plus, with no m…

Asia’s emerging markets – Room to run

Dara White, Senior Portfolio Manager | November 10, 2014

As emerging markets investors, we like Asia because of its strong reform momentum and the depth of its stock market. Rising interest rates will be good for exports and Asia’s earnings story. Valuations, inflation rates and current accounts are at levels close to where they were from 2001 to 2005, the best period for emerging markets. Excerpted from Barron’s November 3, 2014 cover story in which Dara White and three other EM experts discuss opp…

How will the Volcker rule impact capital markets?

Richard Manuel, CFA, Senior Analyst | January 6, 2014

…re was great consternation in the industry – warnings that it would impair the proper functioning of our capital markets and produce an uneven playing field for U.S. firms, making them less competitive in global markets. With the final rule out, though some uncertainty remains, it seems that tragedy was averted and that our capital markets will continue to thrive. There has been considerable debate as to the role proprietary (“prop”) trading play…

Not all emerging markets are created equal

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | January 27, 2014

We see emerging markets shifting from an environment of common thematic tailwinds to one of more idiosyncratic outcomes We believe that painting all emerging markets with a broad brush is a mistake We examine some of the key factors in uncovering EM investment opportunities Emerging markets (EM) is a term given to a universe of countries that is extremely diverse across a wide number of variables including geography, levels of industrializatio…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…odities for Threadneedle Investments, addresses some of the key concerns currently facing investors in commodity markets, and explains his view of the outlook for the market. What is your outlook for commodities for the remainder of 2014? We are bullish on the macro outlook for the rest of 2014. The OECD countries and in particular North America, the region where economic growth is currently the strongest, and where growth is accelerating, will d…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

…the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets. At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is…

Emerging Markets: Waiting on exports

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…s have remained sluggish for the past three years due in part to the subpar nature of global growth. As emerging markets struggle to overcome the challenges to their growth story, the EM landscape will likely face significant challenges ahead. Equity markets in the developed world did very well in 2013 while the picture was far more mixed in the developing world. So far this year emerging market (EM) stocks have not just trailed developed market…