Search results for: michael taylor

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Detroit and Stockton are game changers for municipalities in fiscal distress

Contrary to past experience and conventional wisdom, general obligation bonds are not sacrosanct and very low recovery rates are possible. Pensioners and other politically favored classes are likely to be treated more kindly than bondholders.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing, Muni Perspectives Blog

Detroit and Stockton are game changers for municipalities in fiscal distress

Are the Detroit and Stockton bankruptcies and how they were handled representative of what’s to come? Here muni senior analysts Ty Schoback and Michael Taylor discuss these cases and Chapter 9 more broadly, especially concerning trends in recovery rates for bondholders.

Puerto Rico’s double-downgrade

What’s behind the downgrade of Puerto Rico’s credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s? The double-downgrade puts pressure on Puerto Rico to shore up its finances in the coming weeks.

Tagged with: Fixed Income

U.S. rates — Headwinds

At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee looks likely to rework its forward guidance for short-term interest rates once again. We expect revised forward guidance to lean heavily on the idea of “headwinds”; this is a stand-in term for a low equilibrium real rate.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Labor markets in the new digital age

The downside to technological progress is short-term dislocations and job loss for those displaced by automation. Workers with high skills and advanced education command a wage premium while unskilled and lower-skilled workers are displaced which aggravates income inequality.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Building wealth through dividend investing

We believe a disciplined dividend strategy that focuses on rising dividends produced by high-quality companies can help investors build wealth over time. Historically,  dividends have been an important component of total return, with the best opportunity for total return in the stocks of high-quality companies that can sustain and grow their dividend over time.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

What investors should know about Fed forward guidance

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up its statements. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, which means they should be considered less credible.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Gaps, not growth

Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — Forward guidance taxonomy

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future differently than it has behaved in the past.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — Data dependence

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, U.S. Economy
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