Perspectives Blog

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

Industry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies; however, independent refiners would likely see their profitably decline. The Energy Policy and Conservat…

Turmoil in Iraq – Implications for the oil market

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | June 30, 2014

The impact of Iraq’s turmoil on oil prices has been fairly muted, but any escalation of violence could pose a serious threat to the stability of global oil markets. With Iraq accounting for the majority of OPEC’s production growth, the market has started to rethink long term supply-demand dynamics and adjust commodity forecasts. Longer term oil prices also face upward risks, as the market has been expecting strong production growth from Iraq wh…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…ess intensive in terms of its consumption of industrial-type commodities, than if it were led by the emerging economies. Could you elaborate on developments in the energy complex, including how the Iraqi conflict is affecting oil and how the situation in Ukraine is impacting natural gas? We anticipate that the price of Brent will remain high at about $110 to $115 a barrel by the year end. We also foresee a continuing dislocation between Brent and…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

…ocal currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expec…

Investing selectively in Asia

Soo Nam Ng, Head of Asian Equities | July 14, 2014

…ed on free market risk- pricing. The re-rating process may take time, but investors can still enjoy an attractive yield while they wait. China’s anti-corruption drive in the last few years is another shifting cloud. Its oil and gas sector is emerging from the anti-corruption purge of Zhou YongKang, China’s ex security czar who has had his power base within it. Recent positive developments include Petrochina’s plans to invite pri…

A tepid cyclical lift

Tom West, Director of Equity Research | April 28, 2014

…nergy sector to be up 2.5%-3%, following 7% during 2013, 16% in 2012 and 25% in 2011. Columbia Management energy analysts estimate that spending will increase a bit more than the 2.5%-3%, especially if commodity, U.S. gas and oil prices stay firm. But a return to the higher growth rates of prior years is not expected. So despite historically low cost of debt and equity financing, cyclical spending remains more granular than widespread. Instead of…

U.S. rates – Headwinds

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | March 17, 2014

…o affects the size of the output gap (the normal transmission mechanism). However, there are many other things that affect the output gap besides monetary policy. These can include non-financial factors like fiscal policy and oil prices, as well as financial headwinds/tailwinds such as credit standards, household balance sheet stress and capital market regulation (financial headwinds could be thought of as affecting the output gap directly or as…