Perspectives Blog

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

Industry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies; however, independent refiners would likely see their profitably decline. The Energy Policy and Conservat…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

…ocal currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expec…

Increasing energy independence and the U.S. economy

Columbia Management, Investment Team | May 7, 2013

The U.S. petroleum trade balance has shifted. Development of domestic energy sources benefits domestic goods producers with lower costs. Energy exports modest, but on the increase. Investors should note the recent shift in the U.S. petroleum trade balance. For many decades, the United States has largely imported oil and petroleum products, widening our trade deficit and increasing our dependence on foreign energy. With the shale-gas developmen…

Should your income be fixed?

David King, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | December 16, 2013

…If these investments will do that today, this discussion is over; but will they? The event we now call The Great Recession have wrung inflationary expectations out of the global economy. All major commodities, whether gold or oil, cotton or corn, are priced well below their peak levels of recent years. Recipients of government payments linked to inflation are receiving nominal or no increases. Nominal interest rates, which factor in inflation exp…

What’s next for the U.S. dollar?

Nic Pifer, CFA, Sector Leader | July 18, 2013

…ill normalize sooner in the U.S. as a result. This looming policy shift has benefited the U.S. dollar at the expense of other major currencies, and we see this trend continuing over the medium-term. The rapid increase in U.S. oil and gas production is another medium-term positive for the U.S. currency. A secular decline in the demand for imported energy should allow the U.S. economy to grow more quickly with less of the negative impact on the cou…

U.S. rates – Headwinds

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | March 17, 2014

…o affects the size of the output gap (the normal transmission mechanism). However, there are many other things that affect the output gap besides monetary policy. These can include non-financial factors like fiscal policy and oil prices, as well as financial headwinds/tailwinds such as credit standards, household balance sheet stress and capital market regulation (financial headwinds could be thought of as affecting the output gap directly or as…

Garbage in, less garbage out

Paul DiGiacomo, Senior Analyst | May 9, 2013

…redictable. Further, the mix is shifting to new markets. With the acquisition of R360 last year, Waste Connections processes energy waste, which fluctuates with shale drilling activity, which in turn varies with the prices of oil and natural gas. Diversion will increase, with the separation of organics, such as food and grass clippings, as the next growth area. This shift will likely result in less profitable growth for the waste companies, as la…