Perspectives Blog

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

…ustry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies; however, independent refiners would likely see their profitably decline. The Energy Policy and Conservation A…

Turmoil in Iraq – Implications for the oil market

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | June 30, 2014

The impact of Iraq’s turmoil on oil prices has been fairly muted, but any escalation of violence could pose a serious threat to the stability of global oil markets. With Iraq accounting for the majority of OPEC’s production growth, the market has started to rethink long term supply-demand dynamics and adjust commodity forecasts. Longer term oil prices also face upward risks, as the market has been expecting strong production growth from Iraq wh…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…emain in backwardation, that is to say that the prices for immediate delivery will be higher than the prices for oil five to 10 years ahead, and similarly in the short term we recognize that prices for WTI will also be in backwardation. But as oil production continues to increase in North America, we would expect to see that curve eventually flatten out. Interestingly, when these curves are persistently in backwardation, as in the case of WTI, th…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

…ssia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expect major sanctions against the country. Elsewhere, investment grade and high yield markets have been unmoved by th…

What to expect from U.S. midterm elections

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | October 20, 2014

…taunch defender of coal, becoming Senate Majority Leader, Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), a vocal supporter of legalizing oil exports, heading the Senate Energy Committee and Jim Inofe (R-OK), famous for calling global warming “the second biggest hoax ever” stepping in as chair of the Senate Committee of the Environment and Public Works. Prospects for LNG and crude oil exports, accelerated drilling licenses offshore and on federal land, and reduced regula…

Ukraine Crisis – Can the U.S. make Europe less dependent on Russian gas?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | July 28, 2014

As Europe looks to diversify away from its dependence on Russian gas, the U.S. is on track to start exporting liquefied natural gas by as early as next year. Russia remains the largest exporter of natural gas in the world and accounts for approximately 30% of Europe’s gas demand, half of which is transported through Ukraine. While the risk of winter supply disruptions will likely further push Europe to seek a more diversified and permanent sour…

India’s new government fires investor enthusiasm

Natasha Ebtehadj, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Limited | September 8, 2014

The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform. We believe the new government could enact much needed reforms to stimulate investment and unlock India’s economic potential. India’s economy has been w…