Search results for: paper

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Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

U.S. rates — An intriguing six point three

Fed and consensus unemployment forecasts are likely to come down after last week’s jobs report. It is not obvious what lower unemployment rate forecasts mean for U.S. monetary policy.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Why pay a premium for municipal bonds?

What are premium, par and discount bonds? Why paying a premium often makes sense.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

The coming divide in state credit quality

We expect an increased divergence in state credit quality in the coming years, compared with what has been seen over the past two decades. While the overall state sector remains robust, we believe notable credit distinctions are beginning to materialize among several weaker states.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, New Tax Regime

Detroit and Stockton are game changers for municipalities in fiscal distress

Are the Detroit and Stockton bankruptcies and how they were handled representative of what’s to come? Here muni senior analysts Ty Schoback and Michael Taylor discuss these cases and Chapter 9 more broadly, especially concerning trends in recovery rates for bondholders.

Municipal pension obligations: Why fear about underfunding may be unjustified, and why Chapter 9 will never become pervasive (save a few outliers)

Concerns about plan solvency are widespread and attention-grabbing, though perhaps unjustified. Collectively, pension funded ratios have declined at the state and local level, though the cost of funding actuarially required contributions remains manageable as a percent of governmental spending.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, New Tax Regime

U.S. Rates — The Draghi Floor

ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

From Tactical To Core: The Case for Emerging Market Debt

We believe emerging market debt should be viewed as a core-portfolio holding. 2013’s repricing created value in terms of higher yields, a more dedicated investor base and a better relative value argument.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing
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