Search results for: private sector

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Interest rates in a highly indebted economy

In a highly indebted economy, there is no fixed cap on the level of interest rates. Any increase in interest rates must be consistent with tolerable debt service ratios, the existing stock of debt and private sector savings.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, Markets

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

How bad is China’s credit crisis?

We look at the scope and impact of China’s credit crisis
We believe the possibility of a financial meltdown is low
We discuss how resolution of the crisis may unfold

News of a trust product on the brink of default has deepened the concerns of increasing instability of China’s financial system. The risk of defaults on trust and wealth management products will likely continue to impact markets.

Tagged with: Global Economy

ECB asset purchases — Bazooka or damp squib?

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

Investing selectively in Asia

Beneath the surface of slowdown headlines lay pockets of exciting growth opportunities. As companies step back from chasing revenue growth and start emphasizing profit delivery, better cash flows and dividend payouts typically follow.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Biotech’s beneficiaries: How outsourcing is improving the sector and spreading the wealth

Conditions favor biotech outperformance of broader markets for at least a few more quarters. Outsourcing offers biotech firms varied advantages, from cost reduction to enhancing credibility.

Tagged with: Investing

Oil and the high yield market

By Jennifer Ponce de Leon, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of High Yield and Mark Van Holland, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager 

Size of the Energy Sector

Because the energy sector is a large component of the U.S. high yield market relative to some other asset classes, the market has received increased scrutiny due to recent declines in oil prices. Prior to the recent sell off, energy accounted for more than 15% of the high yield market, making it by far the largest industry (healthcare is the second largest at approximately 8.5%).

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Quality milestone in the European recovery story

Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The U.S. labor market — Show me the money

It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

A tepid cyclical lift

Cyclical investment and discretionary spending are on track to deliver earnings growth of 7% in the S&P 500. Strength in some consumer durables appears more of a “wallet share” gain than a general lift due to recovering wages or a release of excess savings.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing, Markets
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