Perspectives Blog

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…ve the expansion. Unless there is a significant escalation of geopolitical events we expect global growth to improve. Given that the developed world is leading the global economy, we anticipate that the expansion will be more energy intensive, and less intensive in terms of its consumption of industrial-type commodities, than if it were led by the emerging economies. Could you elaborate on developments in the energy complex, including how the Ira…

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

Industry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies; however, independent refiners would likely see their profitably decline. The Energy Policy and Conservat…

Ukraine Crisis – Can the U.S. make Europe less dependent on Russian gas?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | July 28, 2014

…more diversified and permanent source of supply, the U.S. is not in a position to help right now. With no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in sight, additional sanctions against Russia, including those targeting its energy sector, appear inevitable. The most recent financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. targeted Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, and Novatek, the second largest natural gas producer, but stopped short of including…

Turmoil in Iraq – Implications for the oil market

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | June 30, 2014

…long term supply-demand dynamics and adjust commodity forecasts. Longer term oil prices also face upward risks, as the market has been expecting strong production growth from Iraq which may now be in jeopardy. Oil prices and energy security have once again come back into the spotlight as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as ISIS, has taken control over parts of northern and western Iraq. To date, the impact on oil prices…

A tepid cyclical lift

Tom West, Director of Equity Research | April 28, 2014

Cyclical investment and discretionary spending are on track to deliver earnings growth of 7% in the S&P 500. Strength in some consumer durables appears more of a “wallet share” gain than a general lift due to recovering wages or a release of excess savings. Construction and energy are poised for another year of growth, while “enterprise” spending and investment in the tech sector remain challenged. The S&P 500 Index should grow earning…

Rebalancing the U.S. economy

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

…tional Bureau of Economic Research, September 2013   Two additional sectors where rebalancing is likely to add to domestic production are trade and capital spending. As to trade, the catalyst here is incremental domestic energy production and the diminishing dependency on oil imports which materially narrow trade deficits. Petroleum imports fell 6% (the lowest level since 1996), and petroleum exports rose 4% (to record highs) adjusted for in…

Inflation consternation

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | November 5, 2013

…2009. Some commentators have been quick to change their call for European Central Bank (ECB) action on November 7 or the December meeting. Previously, ECB President Mario Draghi has said lower inflation due to factors such as energy prices is actually positive, as it boosts disposable income and hence consumption. For sure, some of the October decline comes from energy base effects given that annual energy inflation fell to -1.7% year over year….