Perspectives Blog

Emerging Markets: Waiting on exports

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…nslate into EM export acceleration or whether other forces are at work. The ongoing weakness in EM exports has led some to question whether EM economies have lost relative competitive advantage and market share. In late 2012, Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research, argued that one should not dismiss the relative strengths of U.S. competitiveness. Low cost production from emerging Asia was a threat to U.S. businesses, but American busine…

Take an active approach to selecting your active manager

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | April 7, 2014

Be sure the manager takes enough risk Be sure the manager takes intentional, well-informed risk Be sure the manager has delivered returns for that risk taken across multiple backdrops For some time, we have written about the challenges active equity managers face from a market with unusually high cross-correlations. We have also stated our belief that the correlation pendulum would swing back to more normal levels (at least) as the aftershocks…

Surveying the landscape for M&A

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | March 3, 2014

Cash-rich corporations are increasingly considering M&A. The market is rewarding acquirers generously (for now). How can investors position in front of potential M&A without paying an excessive premium that leaves room for disappointment? Cash balances at U.S. non-financial corporations have exploded in the post-crisis era, despite a rising return of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. One other option…

Finding the sweet spots in corporate spending

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | February 24, 2014

Investors could find opportunity in capital expenditures. Strategic positioning in these areas is key to opportunity. Shale gas and automation are leading the charge in innovation. Cash balances at U.S. non-financials corporations have exploded in the post-crisis era, up 75% since the end of 2007. This is despite a rising return of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. However, capital expenditures and reinvestme…

When the QE tide recedes, focus on what is revealed

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | January 6, 2014

Monetary stimulus from central banks can no longer be counted on to lift asset prices For 2014 we see a market with lower cross-correlations and more divergent investment outcomes Finding alpha opportunities requires in-depth global research to take advantage of market inefficiencies While there is fierce debate on the ultimate effectiveness of monetary stimulus surging from the central banks, one cannot dispute the boost that it has given to…

Not all emerging markets are created equal

Robert McConnaughey, Director of Global Research | January 27, 2014

We see emerging markets shifting from an environment of common thematic tailwinds to one of more idiosyncratic outcomes We believe that painting all emerging markets with a broad brush is a mistake We examine some of the key factors in uncovering EM investment opportunities Emerging markets (EM) is a term given to a universe of countries that is extremely diverse across a wide number of variables including geography, levels of industrializatio…