Perspectives Blog

The bean counting on second quarter GDP

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | July 25, 2013

…th into focus. It looks soft, weighed down by three forces. These include: The impact of the global growth slowdown on U.S. manufacturing and trade, The fiscal drag associated with reduced government spending courtesy of the sequester, and What may be outright inventory depletion. One added surprise has been slower housing starts, particularly in multi-family, which may dent the stellar gains in residential investment portion of GDP last quarte…

VIDEO – U.S. economic outlook

Colin Moore, AIIMR, Global Chief Investment Officer | September 9, 2013

While total GDP growth is struggling around 2%, the private economy is growing at about 3%. Though growth in the rest of this year may continue to be slow, the impact from changes in wage taxation and the sequester should begin to diminish in 2014. Overall, the outlook for the U.S. is not tremendous, but reasonable – and particularly good compared to most of the rest of the world. See more Market Insights from Columbia Management….

Payroll lite

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | August 8, 2013

…bs but little growth in average hourly earnings and hours. Health Care limped in with a 8K gain, the weakest since 2003, on job cuts in hospital and nursing care facilities that have seen Medicare payments reduced (due to the sequester) and are feeling cost pressures from the Affordable Care Act. The business survey report has seen more tepid job growth in the last three months averaging about 175K. This is down modestly from 200K quarterly aver…

The truth about April’s budget surplus

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | May 16, 2013

…store sales reports very soft. Outlays have also been held in check with spending down in certain categories in the last year including defense, transportation, science, international, and interestingly, interest on the debt. Sequester cuts, however, are just beginning to be felt. On the other hand, those reductions will be offset by spending increases for entitlement programs. In the last 12 months Medicare and other health-care spending is up 8…

The U.S. economy — a gain in GDP?

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | May 2, 2013

…will be the weakest quarter of the year. For instance, we now know that March consumption contracted, and ended the quarter on very weak footing which continued into April. The tax hikes are now denting consumer spending. The sequester cuts will be more keenly felt in Q2, leading to another large drop in government spending. Inventory gains will be more muted and capital expenditure remains on hold. The housing story remains encouraging and will…