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Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Is Europe heading for Japanese-style deflation?

Although there are many differences that should ensure that the eurozone does not follow Japan‘s fate, policymakers will need to act forcefully if the risk of deflation intensifies. While the euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term, many euro countries are “one crisis away from deflation.”
The European Central Bank (ECB) claims to be ahead of the game, but policy needs to be more pro-active.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing

Q4 fixed income outlook — External influences

While the bond market has generated strong returns so far in 2014, we are positioning portfolios with a shorter duration to protect against rising interest rates. Although we think that corporate bonds look better than their government counterparts, the most attractive bond market opportunities may be outside of the corporate market.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Global market mid-year outlook

Overall macroeconomic picture in U.S. should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. We remain positive on emerging market debt while maintaining a bias against emerging market equities.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Inflation — The usual suspects

Four factors figure empirically into how and why inflation moves: (1) commodity prices, (2) spare capacity, (3) changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary policy. These same factors argue for a gradual recovery in U.S. inflation in the year ahead, which could be a headwind for high-quality fixed-income returns.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

It’s a mobile world

While the growth of smartphones on the high-end is decelerating, the low-end in China and the emerging markets continue to see strong growth. The outlook for communications infrastructure seems to have improved.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

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