Perspectives Blog

Yellen at Jackson Hole

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | August 25, 2014

…hy policy might need to become less easy. Second, her extensive discussion of slack was more balanced around the structural factors affecting labor markets than her past remarks, in our view (see here for background). We would point to: (A) the comment that labor force dropouts related to disability and school enrollment are “clearly and importantly” affected by structural trends; (B) her view that “some portion” of the rise in involuntary part-t…

Ahead of the trends – Washington update on retirement savings initiatives

Columbia Management Learning Center , | July 31, 2014

Various federal government initiatives, including tax reform, will impact the way Americans save for retirement. Trends to watch include enforcement, pension de-risking and participant empowerment measures. Staying current on changes can help you identify critical retirement savings decision points. Retirement security is the financial issue that is most disconcerting to Americans.* Likewise, the current administration has concluded the U.S. i…

To infinity and beyond!

Colin Moore, Global Chief Investment Officer | October 13, 2014

…past several years, I wrote about the concept of a square root economy, during which we faced multiple years of structurally lower economic growth following the great recession. Six years ago many commentators assumed the recession would be followed by strong growth. Recessions are often caused by the need to correct cyclical excesses. So assuming the underlying trends are strong, it is not unreasonable to expect a strong bounce back. However, I…

U.S. rates — View update

Zach Pandl, Portfolio Manager and Strategist | April 4, 2014

…r own (the latter comment especially, because it takes an unusual stance on the retirement question, and ignores trends in disability and other structural factors depressing prime-age participation). They are more reminiscent of research (here and here) that argues the Fed should overstimulate in an effort to boost potential growth. Indeed, Monday’s remarks perhaps hint that the “headwinds” story should be read as a committee compromise rather th…

Missing links and multipliers

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | June 9, 2014

…for multi-family units from single-family units and for rentals versus ownership. This is linked to many secular trends, not just reduced affordability. Overall it points to shifting preferences of buyers based on demographic trends and generational tastes. Multi-family units are generally less expensive and much smaller than single family units and are usually closer to metropolitan areas. Young people may prefer to live closer to the city and/o…

India’s new government fires investor enthusiasm

Natasha Ebtehadj, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Limited | September 8, 2014

…es at 20 per 1,000 people. As consumption recovers, helped potentially by lower financing rates, a return to the structural growth story should benefit India’s carmakers. 3. Infrastructure: With renewed focus on addressing structural bottlenecks in the economy, areas such as roads, rail and affordable housing should see a meaningful uptick in investment. The Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is one rail project under construction that will c…

Retail sector outlook – It’s a share game

Mari Shor, Senior Equity Analyst | March 17, 2014

…ories and away from apparel can be expected given less favorable weather through summer, less democratic fashion trends in the marketplace and a lack of seasonality in consumers’ wardrobes. With both structural and cyclical headwinds facing many apparel retailers today, we believe that global brand strength and supply chain expertise will be needed for companies to gain share going forward. Price (either every day or promotional) alone is not eno…