Search results for: structural trends

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Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Yellen at Jackson Hole

At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Global Economy

Ahead of the trends — Washington update on retirement savings initiatives

Various federal government initiatives, including tax reform, will impact the way Americans save for retirement. Trends to watch include enforcement, pension de-risking and participant empowerment measures.

Tagged with: New Tax Regime, Uncategorized

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

To infinity and beyond!

Financial markets are now questioning the time limit on an infinite QE policy and what lies beyond its expiration. While volatility and corrections are unpleasant, they can motivate investors to focus on fundamental issues such as capital investment and labor productivity.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, Markets

U.S. rates — View update

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Missing links and multipliers

Several forces are colliding now and causing a downshift in the trajectory of the U.S. housing recovery. Household formations remain at multi-year lows due in large part to mediocre income and job gains in combination with high student loan debt by 25 – 45 year old homebuyers.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

India’s new government fires investor enthusiasm

The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing

Retail sector outlook — It’s a share game

We believe that many of the macro and micro headwinds experienced through 2013 will continue into 2014. Low correlations across apparel retailers and manufacturers provide opportunities to generate alpha through stock picking.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

Asia’s emerging markets — Room to run

As emerging markets investors, we like Asia because of its strong reform momentum and the depth of its stock market. Rising interest rates will be good for exports and Asia’s earnings story.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets
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