Perspectives Blog

European equities – Should investors care about periphery vs. core anymore?

Dan Ison, Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

…mers while France, UK and Italy were the worst. Four years since the start of the Euro Crisis (Greece late 2009), can we finally stop worrying about the periphery versus the core?  Year-to-date performance (in euros) Source: Threadneedle International Limited*, December 2013. Past performance does not gurantee future results. What can we glean from last year’s equity market performance? On the face of it, not too much. What is certainly true is…

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

…the Gulf Coast, are designed to process heavier and more sour blends from foreign countries. Without the ability to export these lighter barrels, the oil has become “land-locked” and sells for a discount to other seaborne and international blends. As an example, West Texas Intermediate crude, a proxy for U.S. domestic light oil, averaged $98/bbl during 2013, almost $11/bbl less than Brent, a more global benchmark, and has traded at more than a $2…

Income inequality, disinflation and profit growth – the role of globalization

March 10, 2014

…firms outside the United States (shown in Exhibit 2) has risen from less than 1% of GDP to around 2.5% of GDP. Exhibit 2: Profits generated outside the U.S. by U.S. firms as % of U.S. GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Threadneedle, September 2013 The economic, policy and investment implications are profound but also familiar. With citizens of EM a good deal poorer than their developed market neighbors, and with a slow convergence in polit…

The world has gone global. Have you?

Paul Berlinguet, Vice President, Equity Products | May 21, 2013

Many large companies derive significant revenue outside of the U.S. International markets offer both growth opportunities and attractive equity yields. Investors should consider global dividend funds as part of their current portfolio. The line between domestic and global securities has blurred. The top constituents by market capitalization of the S&P 500 index include Apple, Exxon Mobil, Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson. The MSCI All C…

Inflation consternation

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | November 5, 2013

An inflation slowdown in the Eurozone has prompted calls for central bank action, as reduced liquidity coupled with euro strength threatens the recovery. The expectation of imminent easing by the ECB should assert downside pressure on yields, and lead Bunds to outperform other markets. It is uncertain whether the ECB will act this week; we think any intervention is likely to be verbal, at least at first. October inflation in the eurozone slowe…

Global asset allocation outlook (as of March 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | April 7, 2014

After significant gains in 2013, equities took a breather in the first quarter of 2014 while fixed income assets rallied. The S&P 500 Index experienced a fair amount of volatility, retreating 5.8% at the start of the year and then rallying by more than 7% to end the quarter modestly higher. Within international markets, European, emerging markets (EM) and Japanese equities lagged U.S. equities. By the end of the quarter, however, risk assets…

Quality milestone in the European recovery story

March 17, 2014

Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe. We favor domestic European plays over internationally-exposed stocks, with an overweight stance in banking and telecoms. By Paul Doyle, Head of Europe ex. UK equities and Frederic Jeanmaire, Fund Manager, Threadneedle Investments After 18 consecutive negative months, the flow of eurozone…