Perspectives Blog

European equities – Should investors care about periphery vs. core anymore?

Dan Ison, Portfolio Manager | January 13, 2014

…mers while France, UK and Italy were the worst. Four years since the start of the Euro Crisis (Greece late 2009), can we finally stop worrying about the periphery versus the core?  Year-to-date performance (in euros) Source: Threadneedle International Limited*, December 2013. Past performance does not gurantee future results. What can we glean from last year’s equity market performance? On the face of it, not too much. What is certainly true is…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

In the following Q&A, David Donora, Head of Commodities for Threadneedle Investments, addresses some of the key concerns currently facing investors in commodity markets, and explains his view of the outlook for the market. What is your outlook for commodities for the remainder of 2014? We are bullish on the macro outlook for the rest of 2014. The OECD countries and in particular North America, the region where economic growth is currently th…

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

…the Gulf Coast, are designed to process heavier and more sour blends from foreign countries. Without the ability to export these lighter barrels, the oil has become “land-locked” and sells for a discount to other seaborne and international blends. As an example, West Texas Intermediate crude, a proxy for U.S. domestic light oil, averaged $98/bbl during 2013, almost $11/bbl less than Brent, a more global benchmark, and has traded at more than a $2…

Income inequality, disinflation and profit growth – the role of globalization

March 10, 2014

…firms outside the United States (shown in Exhibit 2) has risen from less than 1% of GDP to around 2.5% of GDP. Exhibit 2: Profits generated outside the U.S. by U.S. firms as % of U.S. GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Threadneedle, September 2013 The economic, policy and investment implications are profound but also familiar. With citizens of EM a good deal poorer than their developed market neighbors, and with a slow convergence in polit…

Global market mid-year outlook

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | June 16, 2014

…he United States. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index DJ-UBSCI is a broadly diversified index that allows investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Threadneedle International Limited is an FCA- and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment adviser based in the UK and an affiliate of Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC….

Inflation consternation

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | November 5, 2013

An inflation slowdown in the Eurozone has prompted calls for central bank action, as reduced liquidity coupled with euro strength threatens the recovery. The expectation of imminent easing by the ECB should assert downside pressure on yields, and lead Bunds to outperform other markets. It is uncertain whether the ECB will act this week; we think any intervention is likely to be verbal, at least at first. October inflation in the eurozone slowe…

Global asset allocation outlook (as of March 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | April 7, 2014

After significant gains in 2013, equities took a breather in the first quarter of 2014 while fixed income assets rallied. The S&P 500 Index experienced a fair amount of volatility, retreating 5.8% at the start of the year and then rallying by more than 7% to end the quarter modestly higher. Within international markets, European, emerging markets (EM) and Japanese equities lagged U.S. equities. By the end of the quarter, however, risk assets…