Perspectives Blog

Is Europe heading for Japanese-style deflation?

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | August 4, 2014

…decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual investor. Threadneedle International Limited is an FCA- and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment adviser based in the U.K. and an affiliate of Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency fluctu…

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…t and industry- and commodity-specific factors, and may be more volatile and less liquid than other investments. Threadneedle International Limited is an FCA- and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment adviser based in the UK and an affiliate of Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index DJ-UBSCI, was renamed on July 1, 2014 to the Bloomberg Commodity Index, BCOM. The Bloomberg Commodi…

A less certain world favors high-quality stocks

Philip Dicken, Head of European Equities, Threadneedle International Ltd | October 6, 2014

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act. In a less certain growth environment, we believe stocks that are able to deliver earnings growth will command a justifiable premium. Recap: excessive optimism at the start of 2014 As 2014 b…

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

Industry participants and elected officials have made recent calls to reconsider the 40-year-old ban exporting U.S. oil. Lifting the crude export ban would strengthen the U.S. oil industry as well as the overall economy. Oil producers would naturally benefit from either a full repeal of the ban or any relaxation of U.S. oil export policies; however, independent refiners would likely see their profitably decline. The Energy Policy and Conservat…

Global market mid-year outlook

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | June 16, 2014

Overall macroeconomic picture in U.S. should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. We remain positive on emerging market debt while maintaining a bias against emerging market equities. Overall equity markets have been strong and current index levels suggest that investors still have confidence in the outlook for profits. Global equities and global bonds made progress in May with the former outpa…

Implications of a stronger U.S. dollar

Matthew Cobon, Head of Government and FX Investments, Fixed Income, Threadneedle Int'l Ltd | October 27, 2014

The U.S. dollar could continue to perform well, but there is a short-term case as to why dollar strength could be accompanied by more asset class volatility. Currency markets are moving ahead of what interest rate markets are telling us, so there is a disconnect. Things could become very challenging for the Fed if the U.S. starts importing deflation from elsewhere. The asset class volatility argument is related to global liquidity being withdra…