Perspectives Blog

Triangulating on 2014 corporate earnings

Tom West, Director of Equity Research | January 27, 2014

Estimating corporate earnings with bottom-up forecasts, top down forecasts and empirical forecasts will result in a range of outcomes While we believe bottom-up forecasts provide the best estimate, the other two methods can be useful in testing the result We look at top down build-up earnings growth for the S&P 500 and growth expectations by sector to arrive at an EPS growth estimate for 2014 I generally think the best way to build up an e…

What’s behind the weakness in U.S. housing?

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | March 24, 2014

…, almost all data releases incorporate seasonal adjustments in an effort to even out the month-to-month wiggles due to poor weather. Second, not all of the U.S. suffered under the cold, wintry conditions. Indeed, areas to the west and southwest enjoyed warmer and drier weather—and much economic activity happens there too despite our proclivity to view things with a regional mindset. I am not dismissing the weather effect, but do believe there are…

Lifting the U.S. oil export ban – Who wins?

Jonathan Mogil, Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst | March 24, 2014

…ss heavier and more sour blends from foreign countries. Without the ability to export these lighter barrels, the oil has become “land-locked” and sells for a discount to other seaborne and international blends. As an example, West Texas Intermediate crude, a proxy for U.S. domestic light oil, averaged $98/bbl during 2013, almost $11/bbl less than Brent, a more global benchmark, and has traded at more than a $20/bbl discount on several occasions o…