Search results for: zach pandl

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What the end of QE means for investors (video)

Watch Zach Pandl, portfolio manager and strategist, explain what the end of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program means for investors. QE is over because it succeeded, which is good news.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing

Slack and inflation

Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Inflation — The usual suspects

Four factors figure empirically into how and why inflation moves: (1) commodity prices, (2) spare capacity, (3) changes in exchange rates, and (4) monetary policy. These same factors argue for a gradual recovery in U.S. inflation in the year ahead, which could be a headwind for high-quality fixed-income returns.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

Slack and Inflation

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Special report — 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates

Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist

Review:

Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — Forward guidance taxonomy

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up statements with some type of commitment. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, a forecast that the central bank will behave in the future differently than it has behaved in the past.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

What investors should know about Fed forward guidance

The Fed’s communication for 2014 looks like the strongest type of forward guidance, one that clarifies the existing policy approach and backs up its statements. Current statements for 2015 and beyond are closer to the weakest type of forward guidance, which means they should be considered less credible.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Dovish feathers showing through

Dovish comments by Fed officials lead us to believe that normalization in interest rates could take a more circuitous route. While the steady economic recovery makes higher yields inevitable, the path we take to get there is dependent on the Yellen Fed’s policy approach.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Neutral funds rate going up?

The idea of low neutral funds rate has surprising currency, but could erode with more evidence of solid growth. We believe incoming information suggests the neutral funds rate would be moving higher, not lower.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

U.S. rates — When the facts change

Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy
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