Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager
Marie Schofield is chief economist and senior portfolio manager at Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA). Ms. Schofield is a member of the firm’s investment strategy committee and leads the effort on macroeconomic research and strategy. She is also a member of the asset allocation team. Prior to her current role, she served as head of the core fixed-income team in Boston from 2001 through 2006 and as senior strategist for the fixed-income strategy group from 2006 through 2008. Ms. Schofield joined the firm in 1990 and has been a member of the investment community since 1975.
Prior to joining the firm, Ms. Schofield was a portfolio manager at Trustco Bancorp NY, Chittenden Bank and BayBanks Investment Management.
Ms. Schofield earned a B.S. from the College of Saint Rose and is a member of the CFA Institute, the Boston Security Analysts Society, the Fixed Income Management Society of Boston and the Boston Economic Club. In addition, she holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
It is unclear if recent improvements in U.S. labor market data are due to less slack or government-related measures to support worker income and benefits. Occupations with some scarcity of qualified labor have seen some wage pressures, but the gains are likely due to one-time minimum wage hikes. A more spirited pickup in overall wage
The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve. My expectations for growth are unchanged at 2.5%-3.0%, but I am
While there has been a broad slowing in the last 15 months, the U.S. housing market has stabilized and started to recover. Homebuilders are catering to upscale buyers where financing is less of a constraint, and also building larger and more expensive homes. Housing has started to add to economic activity after stalling for the
While the current U.S. business cycle is likely past its mid-point, its durability should not be measured by length alone. The tepid nature of the recovery has prevented the build-up of excesses that normally precede recessions. Because it will be some time before any imbalances build up to the point of excess and stymie the
U.S. consumers have taken a more cautious attitude toward debt and been more selective about using it for discretionary purchases. With consumers using credit cards less and using debit cards much more, the supports for higher discretionary spending are keyed off income and wages and also employment. With low debt use and income growth holding
Several forces are colliding now and causing a downshift in the trajectory of the U.S. housing recovery. Household formations remain at multi-year lows due in large part to mediocre income and job gains in combination with high student loan debt by 25 – 45 year old homebuyers. Fewer homeowners mean missing multipliers for growth. As
The March labor market report was solid, with the overall private level of employment finally exceeding the pre-recession high. The Household Survey had the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7%. A recurrent problem is the poor quality of job growth in terms of underemployment/part timers and wage growth. The March labor market report from the
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