Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager
Marie Schofield is chief economist and senior portfolio manager at Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC (CMIA). Ms. Schofield is a member of the firm’s investment strategy committee and leads the effort on macroeconomic research and strategy. She is also a member of the asset allocation team. Prior to her current role, she served as head of the core fixed-income team in Boston from 2001 through 2006 and as senior strategist for the fixed-income strategy group from 2006 through 2008. Ms. Schofield joined the firm* in 1990 and has been a member of the investment community since 1975.
Prior to joining the firm, Ms. Schofield was a portfolio manager at Trustco Bancorp NY, Chittenden Bank and BayBanks Investment Management.
Ms. Schofield earned a B.S. from the College of Saint Rose and is a member of the CFA Institute, the Boston Security Analysts Society, the Fixed Income Management Society of Boston and the Boston Economic Club. In addition, she holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Recent retail sales data are well below expectations and probably an indication that consumers have become more cautious about spending. Financial conditions matter greatly, and the recent tightening is likely having some impact on housing activity and consumer attitudes. Spending follows wages and it will be difficult for retail spending to gain much traction with
The recent rise in long-term interest rates could negatively impact the housing market, which has been a driver of economic recovery. The effect of higher interest rates will typically show up first in the data for new home sales data, which have dropped sharply. The combination of skyrocketing rates and more expensive and rising prices
Economic data seem largely unchanged from past trends, despite uptick in retail sales. Consumers continued to pare their debt last quarter continuing a nearly five-year trend. Given consumer deleveraging, consumption remains tethered to income gains – and those gains remain sub-par. Last week’s economic data give a very mixed picture of the health of the
Latest payroll data came in below expectations, but it will not change the Fed’s view on tapering quantitative easing sometime before year end. Disproportionate gains in part-time workers warrant higher scrutiny for a number of reasons, including implications for income and consumer spending. Payroll data supports the view that the economy seems stuck near 2% real growth
Second quarter GDP data looks soft, including a wider trade deficit and cuts in government spending. Positive factors include steady consumer spending and upcoming changes in the way GDP will be calculated. Growth is poised to improve in the second half, but the Fed’s models and forecasts seem overly optimistic. Final second quarter GDP data
Surge in tax receipts allows the U.S. Treasury to report the largest budget surplus in five years. What is good for the Treasury and the budget presents some burden on households; taxpayer refunds are down 3.5% this year versus last. Recent deficit improvement may give a false sense of security and delay critical entitlement reforms.
First quarter advance estimate of GDP shows annualized growth of 2.5%, which was below expectations. Positive contributions from personal consumption, fixed investment and inventories were shaved by negative contributions from net exports and government expenditures. This quarter’s weaker economic data will temper views of the Fed backing away from quantitative easing (QE) sooner rather than
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