Zach Pandl is a senior interest rate strategist for Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC, based in Minneapolis. Mr. Pandl focuses on research relating to the macroeconomy and government policy and their implications for interest rate markets. He chairs the Columbia Management Interest Rate Committee, which is responsible for formulating and articulating the firm’s view on interest rates in the U.S. and other developed markets. Mr. Pandl joined the firm in 2012 and has been a member of the investment community since 2006. Prior to joining Columbia Management, Mr. Pandl was senior economist at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York. There he was responsible for original research on the U.S. economy and interest rates and the development of proprietary analytical tools. Previously, he held positions at Nomura Securities and Lehman Brothers. Mr. Pandl earned his B.S. in economics from the University of St. Thomas and his Masters in economics from New York University.
Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies. The output gap improved despite a
Yellen’s testimony before U.S. lawmakers will help clarify how she plans to govern the committee Some investors are expecting a meaningful change in direction from the Yellen Fed We look at four reasons why we anticipate continuity with the Bernanke regime After a few bewildering weeks with Nicolas Maduro and Erdem Basci, I can’t be
The timing of the Fed’s QE exit is no longer the central question An accelerating economy could mean another challenging year for duration risk A major question is whether markets begin to doubt the Fed’s commitment to low rates If bond investors were asked to summarize 2013 in a single word, we suspect that many
We expect Fed officials to announce the first slowing of QE at this week’s FOMC meeting The main risk to our expectations is the still-low level of core inflation We also expect the FOMC to pair any slowing of QE with qualitative changes to its forward guidance In the press conference after the September FOMC
More signs that U.S. growth is accelerating; with 7% unemployment rate, look for qualitative communication changes at next FOMC meeting. Higher odds of December taper but we still think January is more likely (with possible hint in December press conference). We wonder whether front-end rates can remain anchored as growth picks up. The November employment
How will the Fed manage the exit process? There are two ways QE could come to an end We see QE tapering starting soon Minutes from the October 29-30 FOMC meeting released last week included an unusual section titled “Policy Planning”—an indication of the many moving parts and difficult trade-offs in the Fed’s current communication
Chair of the Federal Reserve Board might be the most powerful job in global finance, and if Janet Yellen is confirmed, her views will weigh heavily on policy decisions — and influence financial markets — for at least the next four years. Yellen should be considered a dovish central banker, relative to other Fed officials.
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