Latest Perspectives

Global Economy

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The factors keeping inflation low remain U.S. dollar strength and sluggish global trade, together with the deflationary pulse from weak energy and commodity prices. While there is little danger of this developing into true deflation, the strong dollar effect will continue to depress inflation for much longer and this has a stronger influence on core inflation.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Base metals, U.S. natural gas, grains and now oil are all trading at price levels that are signalling producers to cut production. We see the over-production of oil as temporary and the market balancing in Q3 2015, and while this will leave significant inventories to work through, prices should recover into year end.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

The European Central Bank is embarking on quantitative easing at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. A more constructive economic outlook could have important implications for European markets.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Markets

Investors are concluding that the prospects for EM equities are as dim as ever. Yet evaluating EM as a monolithic whole is outdated and dangerous.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

The strong U.S. dollar has weighed on the results of global firms that report in dollars. But investors think there may be some end-market weakness hiding in the currency translation effects.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Fed officials should be encouraged by the ECB’s announcement to begin a large-scale bond buying program in an effort to shore up growth and prevent deflation. The action reduces downside risks to global growth, and thus the risks of spillovers to the domestic economy.

Tagged with: Economic/Markets Outlook, Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

We are positive on the financial market impact of European QE if it brings down risk premia such as peripheral bond spreads. The tendency amongst investors will be to own more risk assets such as equities, particularly as the ECB’s move will help to keep interest rates low globally.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

Investors should understand the risks in their portfolio, and be cognizant that black swan events can occur much more frequently than models suggest. Risk models are extremely helpful when thinking about portfolio construction, but shouldn’t be relied upon exclusively.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Under yesterday’s expanded QE programme, the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement combined monthly purchases of €60bn to end September 2016 or until there is sustained improvement in path of inflation (i.e,. a far-reaching commitment,  though they have said they will not buy more than 25% of the outstanding stock).

Tagged with: Global Economy, Markets

While financial markets have seen massive gains from the darkest days of 2008’s financial crisis, the global economy has yet to fully recover to robust growth levels, and expectations for future market returns are far more modest. In this video, Robert McConnaughey, Global Director of Research at Columbia Management, explains his top investment strategies for 2015, given this conservative outlook for overall market tailwinds.

Tagged with: Economic/Markets Outlook, Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets
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