Latest Perspectives

Global Economy

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The U.S. dollar could continue to perform well, but there is a short-term case as to why dollar strength could be accompanied by more asset class volatility. Currency markets are moving ahead of what interest rate markets are telling us, so there is a disconnect.

Tagged with: Global Economy, U.S. Economy

Markets are now asking what happens if growth slows again in the U.S. and/or weak and slowing growth in Europe, Russia and China drags down U.S. and U.K. growth?

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The more things change, the less they stay the same. The last five years have brought good times to investors.  Equity markets have more than doubled, bond yields have dropped, credit spreads have tightened and volatility has calmed.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

A convenient, comprehensive reference that looks both back and forward to bring today’s economy, markets and investing opportunities sharply into view. The Q4 2014 MarketTrack — featuring more than 40 charts and graphs accompanied by straightforward commentary — is now available.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

In Japan, there is general optimism for a steady economic recovery, with a prevailing sense of confidence in reasonable valuations and a low bar for incremental improvement. Companies that can take advantage of global business opportunities look far more attractive than those simply waiting for a rising national tide to lift their boats.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

While the current U.S. business cycle is likely past its mid-point, its durability should not be measured by length alone. The tepid nature of the recovery has prevented the build-up of excesses that normally precede recessions.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing
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