Latest Perspectives

Global Economy

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Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The more things change, the less they stay the same. The last five years have brought good times to investors.  Equity markets have more than doubled, bond yields have dropped, credit spreads have tightened and volatility has calmed.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

A convenient, comprehensive reference that looks both back and forward to bring today’s economy, markets and investing opportunities sharply into view. The Q4 2014 MarketTrack — featuring more than 40 charts and graphs accompanied by straightforward commentary — is now available.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

In Japan, there is general optimism for a steady economic recovery, with a prevailing sense of confidence in reasonable valuations and a low bar for incremental improvement. Companies that can take advantage of global business opportunities look far more attractive than those simply waiting for a rising national tide to lift their boats.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

While the current U.S. business cycle is likely past its mid-point, its durability should not be measured by length alone. The tepid nature of the recovery has prevented the build-up of excesses that normally precede recessions.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing

At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Global Economy

Overhauling corporate governance to harness the power of private enterprise is critical to Japan’s growth strategy. Better engagement between corporate management and shareholders should ultimately lead to higher returns for holders of Japanese equities.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Although there are many differences that should ensure that the eurozone does not follow Japan‘s fate, policymakers will need to act forcefully if the risk of deflation intensifies. While the euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term, many euro countries are “one crisis away from deflation.”
The European Central Bank (ECB) claims to be ahead of the game, but policy needs to be more pro-active.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing
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