Global Economy

Quality milestone in the European recovery story

March 17, 2014

Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe. We favor domestic European plays over internationally-exposed stocks, with an overweight stance in banking and telecoms. By Paul Doyle, Head of Europe ex. UK equities and Frederic Jeanmaire, Fund

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets. At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect

Slow growth: Why is it here and will it stay?

February 24, 2014

There is no consensus on the root causes of slow growth. As economists seek explanations, the secular stagnation theory has re-emerged. Strong evidence suggests the neutral real rate has fallen. (But is it negative? We explore this question in this continuing series over the next few weeks.) By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle,

Does Japan’s sell-off present buying opportunities?

Daisuke Nomoto, Senior Portfolio Manager | February 10, 2014

What’s behind the Japanese stock market’s recent correction? What’s ahead for Japan’s stock market, currency and government policy? Why the risk/reward tradeoff looks attractive at current price levels Abenomics has already had a bigger impact on the Japanese economy and financial assets than the failed attempt at quantitative easing between 2001 and 2006 (see chart).

The importance of taking a long-term perspective

Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Global Head of Investment Solutions and Asset Allocation | February 3, 2014

We examine the value in maintaining a long term outlook for major asset classes We review our forecast for several major asset classes over the next five years Why maintaining realistic expectations for long term asset class performance is so important For asset allocation decisions, we find great value in maintaining a long-term outlook for

The end of “risk-on/risk-off”

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | February 3, 2014

The recent decline in cross-asset correlations may offer better investment opportunities for active managers Lowering both cross-asset correlations and inter-asset correlations provides potential benefits for structuring multi-asset portfolios Active managers should seek non-traditional diversifiers of portfolio performance and remain flexible A notable event of 2013 was the remarkable decline in cross-asset correlations implying potentially better