Latest Perspectives

Economy

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In a highly indebted economy, there is no fixed cap on the level of interest rates. Any increase in interest rates must be consistent with tolerable debt service ratios, the existing stock of debt and private sector savings.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, Markets

Current sentiment indicators do not suggest that Europe is heading back towards recession, though GDP growth will remain subdued. If Q3 sees a rebound, full QE may be unlikely this year, but any further weakness will increase the pressure on the ECB to act.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

The Ebola outbreak is the largest and most serious outbreak ever of this highly-contagious viral disease. Despite the scary headlines, the virus seems unlikely to spread inside the U.S. or other parts of the developed world.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities

The more things change, the less they stay the same. The last five years have brought good times to investors.  Equity markets have more than doubled, bond yields have dropped, credit spreads have tightened and volatility has calmed.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

A convenient, comprehensive reference that looks both back and forward to bring today’s economy, markets and investing opportunities sharply into view. The Q4 2014 MarketTrack — featuring more than 40 charts and graphs accompanied by straightforward commentary — is now available.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

While there has been a broad slowing in the last 15 months, the U.S. housing market has stabilized and started to recover. Homebuilders are catering to upscale buyers where financing is less of a constraint, and also building larger and more expensive homes.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

While the current U.S. business cycle is likely past its mid-point, its durability should not be measured by length alone. The tepid nature of the recovery has prevented the build-up of excesses that normally precede recessions.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing

Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income
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