Enrollment is low There is still confusion around plans Where do we go from here? Healthcare.gov’s performance has improved since its re-launch last week, but capacity and communications problems will persist. Through October, the reported number of enrollees in federal and state-run health insurance exchanges remains meaningfully below initial targets. The federal government is running
Data shows economy is improving Job growth is continuing GDP is not as good as the report would make you think The first week in December was a data goldmine for anyone hoping for news that the economy maintained momentum through the early autumn government distortions. The payroll report continued to post moderate and steady
How will the Fed manage the exit process? There are two ways QE could come to an end We see QE tapering starting soon Minutes from the October 29-30 FOMC meeting released last week included an unusual section titled “Policy Planning”—an indication of the many moving parts and difficult trade-offs in the Fed’s current communication
China has announced significant social and economic reforms. We believe the vague wording and lack of timetables in the announcement should allow for balancing policy changes against short‐term growth prospects. If fully implemented, the plans announced should move the country towards a long-term sustainable growth model. If rolled out gradually, the near‐term effects on growth
Chair of the Federal Reserve Board might be the most powerful job in global finance, and if Janet Yellen is confirmed, her views will weigh heavily on policy decisions — and influence financial markets — for at least the next four years. Yellen should be considered a dovish central banker, relative to other Fed officials.
The most recent reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics give conflicting pictures of employment data. Despite payroll gains, the overall quality of hiring is generally poor and the labor force participation rate dropped. The economy appears to have weathered the government shutdown surprisingly well, but remains stuck near 2% growth. After all the angst
An inflation slowdown in the Eurozone has prompted calls for central bank action, as reduced liquidity coupled with euro strength threatens the recovery. The expectation of imminent easing by the ECB should assert downside pressure on yields, and lead Bunds to outperform other markets. It is uncertain whether the ECB will act this week; we