Latest Perspectives

Economy

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Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

IMCA Jeff Knight Interview

The Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA) interviewed Jeff Knight recently and he spoke about the three pillars of a resilient portfolio for today’s environment. Many investors are looking to preserve post-crisis gains and bolster the defensive dimension of their portfolios to better withstand volatility.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Global Economy, Investing

Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

Low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market. Decline in labor force participation now looks mostly structural.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy

The impact of Iraq’s turmoil on oil prices has been fairly muted, but any escalation of violence could pose a serious threat to the stability of global oil markets. With Iraq accounting for the majority of OPEC’s production growth, the market has started to rethink long term supply-demand dynamics and adjust commodity forecasts.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, U.S. Economy

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates

Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist

Review:

Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Overall macroeconomic picture in U.S. should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. We remain positive on emerging market debt while maintaining a bias against emerging market equities.

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Several forces are colliding now and causing a downshift in the trajectory of the U.S. housing recovery. Household formations remain at multi-year lows due in large part to mediocre income and job gains in combination with high student loan debt by 25 – 45 year old homebuyers.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

The global asset allocation team reaffirmed their recommendation to modestly overweight equities versus bonds, despite the slight underperformance of equities relative to bonds so far this year. The S&P 500 is up about 3.5% while the Barclay’s aggregate index is up 4.0% and longer dated bonds are up over 13%.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Markets
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