More signs that U.S. growth is accelerating. With 7% unemployment rate, look for qualitative communication changes at next FOMC meeting. Higher odds of December taper but we still think January is more likely (with possible hint in December press conference). We wonder whether front-end rates can remain anchored as growth picks up. The November employment
Data shows economy is improving Job growth is continuing GDP is not as good as the report would make you think The first week in December was a data goldmine for anyone hoping for news that the economy maintained momentum through the early autumn government distortions. The payroll report continued to post moderate and steady
Transparency is emerging as a powerful force in improving healthcare outcomes and increasing access to care. The growth of consumer financial responsibility is now estimated at 41% for large corporate plans. Consumer education has never been more important in healthcare than now. President James A. Garfield survived an assassin’s bullet in 1881, only to die
How will the Fed manage the exit process? There are two ways QE could come to an end We see QE tapering starting soon Minutes from the October 29-30 FOMC meeting released last week included an unusual section titled “Policy Planning”—an indication of the many moving parts and difficult trade-offs in the Fed’s current communication
Chair of the Federal Reserve Board might be the most powerful job in global finance, and if Janet Yellen is confirmed, her views will weigh heavily on policy decisions — and influence financial markets — for at least the next four years. Yellen should be considered a dovish central banker, relative to other Fed officials.
The most recent reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics give conflicting pictures of employment data. Despite payroll gains, the overall quality of hiring is generally poor and the labor force participation rate dropped. The economy appears to have weathered the government shutdown surprisingly well, but remains stuck near 2% growth. After all the angst
After a data vacuum of almost three weeks, government agencies have started to gear up again with key reports; unfortunately, they present a picture of economic activity in the third quarter that ended on a soft note. While the third quarter is typically the weakest in a given year, the current trend in employment is