Latest Perspectives

U.S. Economy

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The expected real return on most “safe haven” assets is currently negative. Risk seeking behavior could result in a bubble encompassing all risky assets.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Latest data showing faster growth and shrinking gaps. Normalizing economy creates asymmetry in monetary policy outlook.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

The downside to technological progress is short-term dislocations and job loss for those displaced by automation. Workers with high skills and advanced education command a wage premium while unskilled and lower-skilled workers are displaced which aggravates income inequality.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Dovish comments by Fed officials lead us to believe that normalization in interest rates could take a more circuitous route. While the steady economic recovery makes higher yields inevitable, the path we take to get there is dependent on the Yellen Fed’s policy approach.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

The March labor market report was solid, with the overall private level of employment finally exceeding the pre-recession high. The Household Survey had the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.7%.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

In searching for explanations for the steep decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate analysts have rightly stressed the importance of retiring baby boomers. Increase in disability share accounts for 20-25% of the drop in the labor force participation rate since 2007 (vs ~45% for retirements).

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Compared to the market consensus, our views have been more negative on three key duration fundamentals. Following recent remarks by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, we are now less confident about how to read Yellen’s policy strategy.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy
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