Latest Perspectives

U.S. Economy

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At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee looks likely to rework its forward guidance for short-term interest rates once again. We expect revised forward guidance to lean heavily on the idea of “headwinds”; this is a stand-in term for a low equilibrium real rate.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

The rise in income inequality was a root cause of the U.S. financial crisis and the slow post-recovery period. Mediocre income gains for middle income households have contributed to the slow recovery of U.S. consumption and economic growth.

Tagged with: Investing, Markets, U.S. Economy

Volatile ratings leave retail investors at risk. Retail investors could pay higher prices.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing, Muni Perspectives Blog, U.S. Economy

Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Yellen’s testimony before U.S. lawmakers will help clarify how she plans to govern the committee. Some investors are expecting a meaningful change in direction from the Yellen Fed.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy
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