Today’s low unemployment rate indicates modest slack in labor market, which implies earlier Fed rate hikes and/or more inflation risk. The decline in labor force participation in recent years now looks mostly structural. Investors should remain cautious around U.S. interest rate risk despite a solid first half of 2014. Excerpted from Zach Pandl’s newest whitepaper
A 60/40 portfolio may appear to be balanced, but when viewed through a risk lens it is clear that the equity allocation comprises a disproportionate amount of the risk. As a static strategy, the very thing that has helped risk parity succeed over time may prove to be its biggest liability going forward, and that
Unconstrained multi-sector bond funds have become very popular due to their flexibility to invest tactically across sectors and manage interest rate sensitivity. While it may be useful for a fixed income manager to employ a negative duration strategy, getting the timing right can be very challenging. With interest rates defying expectations so far in 2014,
Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets. If global rates remain persistently low, financial conditions will eventually need to tighten in other ways to offset this unexpected stimulus.
Because yield is an important driver of returns, we believe investors may be better served staying invested rather than sitting in cash or taking a decisively negative position on bonds. History has shown that volatility can stay low for extended periods. In that case, we would expect credit sensitive assets to continue to generate reasonable
In contrast to last year, so far this year all major asset classes have performed well. Developed market equities, bonds, emerging market (EM) equities and EM bonds, and commodities are all up year to date in the range of 4%-8%. Globally diversified portfolios should continue to fare well in this environment and the global asset
Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving. We therefore remain cautious about exposure to U.S. interest rate risk, especially at the middle of the yield curve. The June FOMC meeting contained a