Despite continuing headlines of concern, EM markets have rebounded recently. In order to sustain that rally, we need to see progress on export volumes and political/economic reforms. While not universally cheap, EM equity valuations are not unreasonable and we continue to find bottom-up opportunities. A month ago, much of the news from the emerging markets
Exports by emerging market economies are the most important factor in explaining long-term growth. EM exports have remained sluggish for the past three years due in part to the subpar nature of global growth. As emerging markets struggle to overcome the challenges to their growth story, the EM landscape will likely face significant challenges ahead.
Business, economic and political news all point to a strengthening recovery in Europe. We foresee a period of low inflation and low interest rates in Europe. We favor domestic European plays over internationally-exposed stocks, with an overweight stance in banking and telecoms. By Paul Doyle, Head of Europe ex. UK equities and Frederic Jeanmaire, Fund
To date, the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis has been largely confined to the emerging market debt, emerging market equity and commodity markets. At current levels, emerging market local currency debt appears to offer value, although we expect both the hard and local currency markets to remain volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect
Income inequality has tended to rise in both developed and EM. Companies look across the globe to determine where they can manufacture their products at the lowest risk-adjusted cost. We believe that the global unit labor cost arbitrage is likely to continue for many decades. By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle, Head of
There is no consensus on the root causes of slow growth. As economists seek explanations, the secular stagnation theory has re-emerged. Strong evidence suggests the neutral real rate has fallen. (But is it negative? We explore this question in this continuing series over the next few weeks.) By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle,
What’s behind the Japanese stock market’s recent correction? What’s ahead for Japan’s stock market, currency and government policy? Why the risk/reward tradeoff looks attractive at current price levels Abenomics has already had a bigger impact on the Japanese economy and financial assets than the failed attempt at quantitative easing between 2001 and 2006 (see chart).