The rise in income inequality was a root cause of the U.S. financial crisis and the slow post-recovery period. Mediocre income gains for middle income households have contributed to the slow recovery of U.S. consumption and economic growth. As pressure continues to build to address income inequality, we expect the government to lead on this
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Monetary policy is primarily about “gaps” not growth: the Fed is trying to reduce spare capacity in the economy, not bring about a rapid expansion per se. Despite concerns over cyclical weakness in labor force participation, the unemployment rate is sending similar signals as most other output gap proxies. The output gap improved despite a
The next big move in rates may be triggered by concerns about possible future Fed rate hikes. High-quality bonds may struggle to generate coupon-like returns. Emerging markets may ultimately benefit from the synchronized uptick in growth in global developed markets. With nearly two months of the year behind us, we thought now would be a
Investors could find opportunity in capital expenditures. Strategic positioning in these areas is key to opportunity. Shale gas and automation are leading the charge in innovation. Cash balances at U.S. non-financials corporations have exploded in the post-crisis era, up 75% since the end of 2007. This is despite a rising return of cash to shareholders
Conditions favor biotech outperformance of broader markets for at least a few more quarters. Outsourcing offers biotech firms varied advantages, from cost reduction to enhancing credibility. The sector’s success and the outsourcing trend is fueling ancillary businesses, notably specialty REITs, CROs and research tools companies. As biotech indices continue to surpass all-time highs, one must
Restaurants are modernizing dining with consumer-centric tech focus. Large chains are the leaders, investing more and increasing market share. Innovation is boosting efficiency and reducing costs. In a $680 billion industry that is notoriously low margin, competitive and high touch, restaurants are increasingly using technology to differentiate themselves from the crowd. Advancements in digital ordering,
There is no consensus on the root causes of slow growth. As economists seek explanations, the secular stagnation theory has re-emerged. Strong evidence suggests the neutral real rate has fallen. (But is it negative? We explore this question in this continuing series over the next few weeks.) By Marie Schofield, Chief Economist and Toby Nangle,