Unconstrained multi-sector bond funds have become very popular due to their flexibility to invest tactically across sectors and manage interest rate sensitivity. While it may be useful for a fixed income manager to employ a negative duration strategy, getting the timing right can be very challenging. With interest rates defying expectations so far in 2014,
Global Perspectives offers global economic, market and investment commentary on Monday morning of each week.
Beneath the surface of slowdown headlines lay pockets of exciting growth opportunities. As companies step back from chasing revenue growth and start emphasizing profit delivery, better cash flows and dividend payouts typically follow. We see the greatest contrarian opportunities in sectors where market sentiment has been most depressed. In my previous two articles, I argued
Long-maturity bond yields are determined at a global level. Abnormally low forward rates are not just a U.S. phenomenon: there’s been a similar shift in the relationship between rates and growth across developed markets. If global rates remain persistently low, financial conditions will eventually need to tighten in other ways to offset this unexpected stimulus.
The impact of Iraq’s turmoil on oil prices has been fairly muted, but any escalation of violence could pose a serious threat to the stability of global oil markets. With Iraq accounting for the majority of OPEC’s production growth, the market has started to rethink long term supply-demand dynamics and adjust commodity forecasts. Longer term
Because yield is an important driver of returns, we believe investors may be better served staying invested rather than sitting in cash or taking a decisively negative position on bonds. History has shown that volatility can stay low for extended periods. In that case, we would expect credit sensitive assets to continue to generate reasonable
We believe YTD valuation improvement in stocks is more likely the result of basic supply and demand than an upward revision off corporate prospects. Going into corporate reporting season, we’re focused on whether the cyclical sectors show some signs of increasing activity. For the less cyclical sectors and consumer discretionary industries, we want to see
In contrast to last year, so far this year all major asset classes have performed well. Developed market equities, bonds, emerging market (EM) equities and EM bonds, and commodities are all up year to date in the range of 4%-8%. Globally diversified portfolios should continue to fare well in this environment and the global asset