Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense. Investors should brace for higher interest rates, not just a flattening yield curve. When the facts
Insights on current market events and investment opportunities.
ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Look for another cut to bond purchases and more clues on the exit game plan. In typical fashion, last week’s
Almost as certain as death and taxes is Medicaid expansion under ACA and the move by states toward Medicaid managed care and away from traditional fee-for-service. Medicaid managed care enrollment will expand as states transition beneficiaries from fee-for-service coverage to managed care and the “opt-in” states broaden eligibility. Medicaid coverage expansion will be a source
The landslide victory of the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has transformed investor sentiment towards India. As the new government puts its stamp on policy, it will create investment opportunities not only in the domestic economy but also in sectors exposed to government-led reform. We believe the new government could enact much needed reforms to
We have advocated an overweight to equities for several years. Even through the early year setbacks for the global economy and for global stocks, our views favored equities over other investment choices. To the degree that our overall investment stance has been overweight equities, we have willfully assumed a higher risk profile than usual. So
We look for securities that offer a balance of credit fundamentals and yield. We use a “roll-down” analysis to identify the sweet spot on the yield curve. We believe yield curve positioning is the largest driver of returns for intermediate municipal portfolios. The cornerstone of the Columbia Management municipal investment process is identifying relative value
At last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium Janet Yellen was not the dove we thought we knew. Balanced remarks on labor market and cumulative progress toward recovery put her views close to center of FOMC. We see this as further confirmation that Fed leadership is increasingly comfortable with moving toward an exit from zero interest rates—likely