Perspectives Blog

Inflation consternation

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | November 5, 2013

…is week; we think any intervention is likely to be verbal, at least at first. October inflation in the eurozone slowed alarmingly to levels not seen since late 2009. Some commentators have been quick to change their call for European Central Bank (ECB) action on November 7 or the December meeting. Previously, ECB President Mario Draghi has said lower inflation due to factors such as energy prices is actually positive, as it boosts disposable inc…

Comments on the effect on global markets from the Ukraine crisis

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | March 12, 2014

…in volatile in the short term. Emerging equities reflect concerns not only around Russia and Ukraine but also the weaker growth outlook in Brazil and China. In commodities, Russia is a significant oil player, supplying 30% of Europe’s gas, with 50% of that piped through Ukraine. Any move to curb Russian oil exports by the EU could easily drive Brent crude oil into the $140-160 a barrel range. We therefore do not expect major sanctions against the…

Retail sector outlook – It’s a share game

Mari Shor, Senior Equity Analyst | March 17, 2014

…ts. The “wealth effect” has greatly impacted consumer confidence among upper-income consumers, and companies targeting these consumers have benefitted to a greater degree from higher tourism-driven spend (both in the U.S. and Europe). As it relates to the lower-income consumers, growth in disposable income is likely to remain under pressure given higher healthcare costs and lower government benefits (including food stamps and unemployment). In th…

Q2 fixed income outlook – Hitting for the cycle

Gene Tannuzzo, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…reates opportunities for bond investors in the non-agency mortgage market, as well as in certain corporate industries. Internationally, growth has generally lagged the U.S. However, we are now starting to see better growth in Europe and Japan which we expect to broaden to emerging markets as well. Following weakness last year, emerging market debt has posted gains this year, and we expect further strength ahead as volatility subsides. The monetar…

It’s a mobile world

Dave Egan, Senior Equity Analyst | March 10, 2014

…rade from its 3G network to its LTE network, and its competitor China Telecom looks set to do the same starting in the second half of 2014. In addition, 3G Investments in India appear strong and LTE investments by carriers in Europe also appear likely. While the improved outlook we are hearing about could turn out to be just another head fake, the demand appears real and at minimum should at least meet investor expectations, if not beat those exp…

Global asset allocation outlook (as of March 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | April 7, 2014

After significant gains in 2013, equities took a breather in the first quarter of 2014 while fixed income assets rallied. The S&P 500 Index experienced a fair amount of volatility, retreating 5.8% at the start of the year and then rallying by more than 7% to end the quarter modestly higher. Within international markets, European, emerging markets (EM) and Japanese equities lagged U.S. equities. By the end of the quarter, however, risk assets…

Three investments that could return to favor in 2014

Jeffrey Knight, CFA, Head of Global Asset Allocation | December 16, 2013

…ding Japanese equities. Corporate earnings strength could seal the deal, and our bottom up expectations for Japanese corporate earnings growth next year is higher than the levels that we expect in the United States, the UK or Europe. For these reasons, we begin 2014 with an overweight position in Japanese stocks. Source: IBES Global Estimates, Datastream, November 2013. Emerging market stocks are also tempting. These stocks have essentially sat…