Perspectives Blog

Global market mid-year outlook

Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer, Threadneedle Investments | June 16, 2014

…hat the overall macroeconomic picture is probably stronger than the Q1 GDP data would suggest. All else equal, that should push bond yields higher, particularly if the Fed stops its QE program later this year. The outlook for eurozone bond markets is rather more difficult to call; certainly Germany and Spain appear to have positive growth momentum, which should put some upward pressure on yields if that momentum remains in train. By contrast, the…

ECB asset purchases — Bazooka or damp squib?

Martin Harvey, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Ltd | September 22, 2014

…ave exhibited a similar trend, although five-years have remained higher. Should we infer from this information that the policy measures announced are thus insufficient, and a more aggressive policy is now required? Exhibit 1: Eurozone, 5yr5yr forward inflation Source: Bloomberg, Sep14. Exhibit 2: German breakeven inflation Source: Bloomberg, Sep14. Technical factors make inflation markets difficult to decipher Firstly, there are some technical…

Global Asset Allocation Outlook (as of February 24, 2014)

Columbia Management Global Asset Allocation Team, | March 10, 2014

…luations in relation to large caps. European countries presented a slightly different picture with core economies such as Germany and France deteriorating, while those on the periphery of the continent improving. Overall, the eurozone declined somewhat on our scorecard as earnings growth weakened. Ever since the speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi which promised to do “whatever it takes” to support the monetary union, European…

Emerging Markets: Waiting on exports

Anwiti Bahuguna, Ph.D., Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…oup Part of the reason for the sluggishness of EM exports is the subpar nature of global growth. True, the developed world is recovering, but it has been a weak recovery. U.S. growth has not broken out of the 2%-3% range, the eurozone is no longer contracting but expectations are for growth of only about 1%, and there are questions regarding Japan’s ability to sustain any growth rebound with the advent of the new consumption tax. Global growth ha…

What to make of the rebound in emerging market equities

Dara White, Senior Portfolio Manager | April 14, 2014

…10 and have stagnated at or below zero in recent quarters. The developed world (the core of the export consumer market) is recovering, but it has been an anemic recovery. U.S. growth has not broken out of the 2%-3% range, the eurozone is no longer contracting but expectations are for growth of only about 1%, and there are questions regarding Japan’s ability to sustain any growth rebound with the introduction of the new consumption tax. So EM grow…

Special report – 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | June 16, 2014

…of rates. In addition, slower global growth and rising geo-political risks present downside risks to growth, although supportive central bank actions will continue and perhaps accelerate, particularly in Japan, China and the eurozone. Taxable bonds Colin Lundgren, Head of fixed income Review: 2014 has been a happy new year for taxable fixed-income investors. After experiencing mostly negative total returns in 2013, the surprising combination of…

Harvesting a New Moderation in Asia

Soo Nam Ng, Head of Asian Equities | June 23, 2014

…ex Japan Index tracks the performance of equity securities in eleven countries in Asia, excluding Japan and taking into account local market restrictions on share ownership by foreigners. The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index of Eurozone stocks designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by Deutsche Börse Group and SIX Group. International investing involves increased risk and volatility due to potential political and economic instability, currency f…