Search results for: eurozone

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ECB asset purchases — Bazooka or damp squib?

With inflation expectations declining to the levels that preceded the recent shift in policy, should the ECB and the financial markets be worried? In our view, the ECB probably won’t be wholly impressed by the reaction of inflation expectations to recently announced measures, and will be keeping a close eye on favored measures.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Markets

What to make of the rebound in emerging market equities

Despite continuing headlines of concern, EM markets have rebounded recently. In order to sustain that rally, we need to see progress on export volumes and political/economic reforms.
While not universally cheap, EM equity valuations are not unreasonable and we continue to find bottom-up opportunities.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Commodities – Time to start reloading

Base metals, U.S. natural gas, grains and now oil are all trading at price levels that are signalling producers to cut production. We see the over-production of oil as temporary and the market balancing in Q3 2015, and while this will leave significant inventories to work through, prices should recover into year end.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Investing

October — It always seems to happen in October!

Markets are now asking what happens if growth slows again in the U.S. and/or weak and slowing growth in Europe, Russia and China drags down U.S. and U.K. growth?

Tagged with: Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Harvesting a New Moderation in Asia

Companies with competitive strengths still intact should have positive profit growth once adaptive change gets underway. The ability to control cost is essential to surviving the growth slowdown in Asia Pacific ex Japan.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Interest rates — Farewell, liquidity trap

The U.S. Treasury market as a whole has returned +1% annualized since the end of 2012 (and +0.5% annualized since the low in 10-year yields in July 2012). Because of imminent Fed rate hikes and depressed yield levels, prospective returns look no better today.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Global asset allocation outlook (August 2014)

We have advocated an overweight to equities for several years. Even through the early year setbacks for the global economy and for global stocks, our views favored equities over other investment choices.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing

QE worked, but not as advertised

While QE proved very effective in reinforcing the Fed’s communication about short-term interest rates, there could be simpler ways to achieve the same outcome. The U.S. experience with QE suggests it would be effective in Europe.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

U.S. rates — When the facts change

Prospective returns for Treasuries now look poor across the curve—not just at the front end. Yield curves tend to flatten as central banks raise short-term rates, but valuations have now moved beyond the point where these trades make sense.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, U.S. Economy
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