Perspectives Blog

Special report – Commodity markets outlook

Columbia Management, Investment Team | July 21, 2014

…ve to hold underweights in others, since we are always fully invested in commodities. Our significant underweight in copper and aluminium results from the negative news flowing from China, whether it concerns the economy, the housing market or the financial sector. Prices are unlikely to pick up until this negative newsflow abates and there is a change in the demand dynamic in China. However, we would expect that our underweight stance on copper,…

Q2 fixed income outlook – Hitting for the cycle

Gene Tannuzzo, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager | March 31, 2014

…t this stage, but much less advanced than the credit cycle. While moderate growth continues, the economy has yet to recover all of the jobs lost during the recession, and unemployment is still above the Fed’s target. The U.S. housing market is improving on the back of reduced supply, labor market improvements and overall confidence. We believe this creates opportunities for bond investors in the non-agency mortgage market, as well as in certain c…

India’s new government fires investor enthusiasm

Natasha Ebtehadj, Fund Manager, Threadneedle International Limited | September 8, 2014

…ancing rates, a return to the structural growth story should benefit India’s carmakers. 3. Infrastructure: With renewed focus on addressing structural bottlenecks in the economy, areas such as roads, rail and affordable housing should see a meaningful uptick in investment. The Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) is one rail project under construction that will connect East and West India and at least halve delivery times while quadrupling capa…

Second quarter earnings preview

Tom West, Director of Equity Research | June 30, 2014

…es with large revenue streams outside the U.S. The economic backdrop for financial stocks has largely remained the same, with some surprises. Volatility in capital markets has remained weak, driving weak trading revenues, and housing metrics have remained stable. The surprises have been the accelerating strength of M&A activity, the 0.25% drop in the 10-year Treasury and modest signs of an increase in loan demand. The overall revenue environm…

More light, less tunnel

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | October 31, 2013

…markets and manufacturing orders. Unfortunately, both reports present a picture of economic activity in the third quarter that ended on a soft note well before the government shutdown. Consumer sentiment measures slipped and housing demand cooled. Next week we will see reports on industrial production and consumer spending for September giving us a fuller picture of Q3 activity. But so far, growth appears little changed from the tepid 1% to 2% p…

Where’s Waldo? Be on the lookout for rising costs in a low growth world

Paul DiGiacomo, Senior Analyst | August 18, 2014

…nsumer Price Index (CPI) growth rates have remained within a low band since the recession, despite the Fed’s massive liquidity injection (Exhibit 1). But, cracks in the façade are starting to show. With the modest recovery in housing, the move of manufacturing back to North America and the shale energy boom, the trucking industry is struggling to find drivers, given the industry’s low wages and poor quality of life: a typical long-haul driver ret…

A tale of two labor markets

Marie M. Schofield, CFA, Chief Economist and Senior Portfolio Manager | November 11, 2013

…pending) was soft, up only 1.5%, and the smallest rise in two years. Unfortunately, business spending actually pulled back, the first decline in a year, as uncertainty is still restraining spending. Residential investment and housing remains a support (up 15%) and trade contributed positively to growth as net exports advanced. The fiscal drag is also waning with a small net add from state and local purchases. Trend growth still looks near 2% base…