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Special report — 2014 mid-year review and outlook

Key investment professionals review the first half of 2014 and share their insights into what may be ahead for the second half of the year. Interest rates

Zach Pandl, Portfolio manager and strategist

Review:

Government bond yields declined in early 2014, both in the U.S. and in other developed market economies.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Economy, Investing, U.S. Economy

Emerging Markets: Waiting on exports

Exports by emerging market economies are the most important factor in explaining long-term growth. EM exports have remained sluggish for the past three years due in part to the subpar nature of global growth.

Tagged with: Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Global asset allocation outlook (August 2014)

We have advocated an overweight to equities for several years. Even through the early year setbacks for the global economy and for global stocks, our views favored equities over other investment choices.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing

Asset allocation — Kinetic vs. potential energy

While most equity markets had positive first half performance, we still expect modest acceleration in growth ahead for the global economy. From both a valuation perspective and investor sentiment viewpoint, Chinese, Russian and Japanese equities look cheap.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Equities, Investing, Markets

A very, very, very, very Black Swan?

Investors should understand the risks in their portfolio, and be cognizant that black swan events can occur much more frequently than models suggest. Risk models are extremely helpful when thinking about portfolio construction, but shouldn’t be relied upon exclusively.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Global Perspectives

Emerging market equities — Still a world of opportunity

Despite a disappointing last five years, the structural growth drivers that have long made emerging markets an attractive area in which to invest are as compelling as ever. While emerging markets may be a single asset class, they are anything but homogenous.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

Building better portfolios in a low return world

The near-zero interest rate environment has been a support for the financial markets, but as the economy normalizes so will interest rates. While we expect the bull market in equities to continue, returns will likely be far more modest over the next 10 years.

Tagged with: Asset Allocation, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Markets

What to make of the rebound in emerging market equities

Despite continuing headlines of concern, EM markets have rebounded recently. In order to sustain that rally, we need to see progress on export volumes and political/economic reforms.
While not universally cheap, EM equity valuations are not unreasonable and we continue to find bottom-up opportunities.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing

2015 Annual Perspectives

Given the volume of investment data, media and punditry we face each day, it’s a constant challenge deciding where to focus. But reflecting on 2014 and what may lie ahead in 2015 can help one rise above the day-to-day noise and see the broader picture.

Release the doves

The Fed (and all central banks) is highly sensitive to shifts in inflation expectations by either consumers or the markets. The one-year TIP breakeven appears to be pricing in some deflationary pulse and is also pulling down longer term inflation expectations across the curve.

Tagged with: Economy, Global Economy, Investing
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