Search results for: labor

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A creature is stirring

Last week’s news suggests that the center of the FOMC continues to see interest rate hikes in the middle of next year as most appropriate. December 17 looks like a natural time to begin signaling the possibility of rate hikes to financial markets—an eventuality for which bond investors do not look prepared.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

To infinity and beyond!

Financial markets are now questioning the time limit on an infinite QE policy and what lies beyond its expiration. While volatility and corrections are unpleasant, they can motivate investors to focus on fundamental issues such as capital investment and labor productivity.

Tagged with: Economy, Investing, Markets

U.S. Rates — The Draghi Floor

ECB action this week maybe not enough to restore confidence by itself, but it signals a readiness to defend the inflation target, thus lowering odds of Japanification. U.S. growth accelerating into September 16-17 FOMC meeting.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income

Finding bond opportunities throughout the business cycle

Global bond markets respond in different ways throughout the business cycle. A flexible strategy can adapt its risk complexion to capture opportunities and mitigate downside.

Tagged with: Fixed Income, Investing

Interest rates — Farewell, liquidity trap

The U.S. Treasury market as a whole has returned +1% annualized since the end of 2012 (and +0.5% annualized since the low in 10-year yields in July 2012). Because of imminent Fed rate hikes and depressed yield levels, prospective returns look no better today.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing

Europe – The darkest hour is just before the dawn

The European Central Bank is embarking on quantitative easing at a time when tailwinds are already beginning to build behind the euro area economy. A more constructive economic outlook could have important implications for European markets.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Global Perspectives, Markets

Is Europe Heading for Japanese-style Deflation?

There are many parallels between the euro area today and Japan in the 1990s. The euro area appears to be on track to avert deflation in the short term.

Tagged with: Equities, Global Economy, Investing, Markets

Volatility and Goodhart’s Law

Markets are starting to make understandable inference that Fed officials see a fixed timeline for rate hikes. Implied volatility is low because perceived policy uncertainty is low.

Tagged with: Economy, U.S. Economy

Where’s Waldo? Be on the lookout for rising costs in a low growth world

Broad measures of cost inflation (PPI and CPI) growth rates have remained near 2% for the past three years. However, sharp increases have occurred in isolated areas like trucking, but the effect is far-reaching.

Tagged with: Equities, Investing

U.S. rates — Data dependence

Evidence of data dependency at the June FOMC meeting suggests policy will respond to unemployment and inflation surprises. We are more confident the Fed’s reaction function is (nearly) done moving.

Tagged with: Economy, Fixed Income, Investing, U.S. Economy
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